Japan corporate capex jumps, likely swinging revised GDP to expansion

By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's corporate spending on plant and equipment jumped in the fourth quarter, suggesting likely positive revisions to data that showed the economy unexpectedly tipping into recession last year.

The solid capex data could also bolster the case for the central bank to normalise its extremely accommodative monetary policy in the near term. Investor focus is now on this year's wage negotiations, which could deliver more hefty pay hikes, a prerequisite for ending negative interest rates.

Capital expenditure rose 16.4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, and 10.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, driven by industries such as transport equipment, information and communications, Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday.

The data will be used to calculate revised gross domestic product figures due on March 11. Preliminary estimates last month showed Japan's economy contracted in October-December for the second straight quarter, the definition of a technical recession, weighed in part by a decline in the GDP's capex component, which dropped 0.1% quarter-on-quarter for a third straight quarter of declines.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research institute, said the GDP data could now be upgraded to show an expansion in the fourth quarter, which would effectively mean the economy managed to avoid a recession at the end of last year.

"It could be encouraging to the Bank of Japan even though it may not have a direct implication on monetary policy," Minami said. "Wages are in focus and we are still expecting the central bank to end negative rates in April rather than March."

Three other economists expect GDP to swing to growth ranging from an annualised 1.1% to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, up from a preliminary estimate for a 0.4% contraction.

Monday's MOF capex data also showed corporate sales rose 4.2% quarter on quarter, and recurring profits increased 13.0% in the October-December quarter from the same period a year ago.

(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Stephen Coates and Sam Holmes, Kirsten Donovan)