BREAKING: Why Mark Twain Says the Market is Set for Killer Second Half

Top of the mornin to ya everyone!

I’ve gotta say, yesterday looked pretty darn good as the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record while boring ole Treasury yields also followed suit. 

I mean sure, it’s one heck of a mood lift waking up this morning…

But what does that mean for this morning’s trading session and the rest of the week? 

Well, over the last month the market has no doubt played cat and mouse with investors as it’s toyed with our emotions more than my middle school crush…

But while the roaring bull market is still keeping most people on the edge of their seats in preparation of “sh%t” hitting the fan…

Recent data has come out of the woodworks with a good ole fashioned: Hold my beer.

(Source: Giphy) 

Which is why in this morning's issue, we are going to dive into some lengthy details on what you as a money crazed investor needs to know going forward…

And why, you might want to rethink most experts' future outlook from this moment on. 

As always, we have quite a bit to digest this morning…

So stay with me, grab your favorite morning cocktail, and let’s get to it! 

Bulls on Parade: Why Mark Twain Says the Stock Market is Set for a Killer Second Half

“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes”. My good friend Mark Twain quoted that line over a century ago, and today we’re going to drill that saying into every pessimistic investor from here all the way to JP Morgan’s sell side trading desk. 

(Source: Reddit) 

You see, despite all the doom and gloom from the likes of Wall Street experts like JP Morgan and all the other Chicken littles in the industry, history and data are flashing green lights on a soaring Q2 market like it’s the fourth of July. And the best part is? The show is just beginning. 

(Source: Yahoo Finance) 

Now for those who haven’t been paying attention, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have been partying harder than frat boys on spring break this year. The S&P 500 is up a cool 15.37%, and the Nasdaq? An even juicier 21.09%. And while tech stocks have obviously been the life of the party (even during their hangovers) the added jolt of big boy Powell’s hopeful rate cuts are jumpstarting a rally even O.J. Simpson would kill to be a part of. 

(Source: Giphy) 

Especially considering that history shows that when the market has a big start in the year, it tends to keep the tune of the Car’s “Let the Good Times Roll” hit. 

For instance, since 1928, there have been 29 years where the S&P 500 was up at least 10% by mid-year. In those years, the average gain by year-end was a whopping 24%. And in the last 12 instances of strong starts since 1988, the second half also closed positive every single time. Ayye, that’s a pretty solid track record, wouldn’t you say buddy ole sport? 
 

(Source: Yahoo Finance) 

Now with that said, it’s one thing to look onwards and upwards but there’s no time like the present right? Good thing for degenerate investors like you and I, July has historically shown to be the market’s alcohol infused hype man. The Nasdaq has closed in the green in 10 of the past 11 Julys. That’s right, 10 out of 11. And when you look at the S&P 500’s performance from 1984 to 2024, if the first half was up more than 10%, the second half followed suit 86% of the time. So, it’s no secret that the odds are looking prettay dayum good going forward. 

(Source: Giphy) 

But, for those who love history lessons on Tuesday mornings, here’s some more bang for your buck. The S&P 500 hit 31 all-time highs in the first half of the year. That’s the second-highest number of first-half highs in the past 25 years. The record? It was set in 1995 with 44 new highs. Historically, every time the market has had such a streak, it’s gone on to make at least 10 more all-time highs in the second half. 

(Source: X) 

So, again, back to our buddy Mark Twain, if history is our guide, we’re not just looking at a strong finish; we’re looking at more record-breaking action.

Ok, now that we got all of that fluff out of the way, let’s add one more mix to our High Yield Old Fashioned. Artificial Intelligence is of course adding extreme bullish vibes while playing a bigger role than ever in the market. 

AI injected large language models are getting smarter, faster, and more influential, leading to more innovation and advancement while chip manufacturers are continuing to ramp up the “good stuff” - like my cracked out Uncle’s favorite coke dealer in the 80s. So it’s clear the hype train is real, and it’s only gaining more steam as we head into the second half of 2024. 

(Source: Make A Meme) 

But what say you pessimists? Well they’ll always be there. JP Morgan and others are warning of a potential market crash, pointing to concentration in a handful of stocks and geopolitical uncertainties. 

(Source: Watcher Guru) 

But here’s the thing: the data doesn’t lie. Despite the occasional October crash (looking at you, 1929 and 1987), the overall trend is overwhelmingly bullish.

Even with the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve’s next moves, the market’s historical performance suggests that the bulls aren’t ready to go home just yet. In fact, they’re just getting started.

(Source: Giphy) 

So, what’s the takeaway you ask? 

Well despite all the fearmongering and hand-wringing, the stock market is set up for a strong second half. History is on our side, and the data is clear: when the market has a killer first half, it usually keeps the momentum going. So, ignore the naysayers, keep an eye on the trends, and put your big boy pants on because a massive rally could be just around the corner. 

Of course, I’m no fortune teller. In fact, I have no idea what I’m talking about most of the time (ask my wife), but I can read… and the writing on the wall is clear: The second half of 2024 is set to be one helluva party my friends. 

Stocks.News holds no positions in companies mentioned.