Why David Einhorn Hitched His Wagon to This Forgotten Stock… And Says It’ll Double by 2025

It’s not every day you see a billionaire hedge fund manager (one who famously pocketed an estimated $1 billion by shorting Lehman Brothers during the 2008 financial crisis) hitch his wagon to a struggling farm equipment maker (literally). 

But that’s exactly what David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital just did, leaving investors around the world asking questions (and checking Google for “CNH Industrial”).

Shares of CNH Industrial (the company that sells tractors and combines) leaped over 6% at the end of last week after Einhorn revealed he’d finished buying a stake. The news came during CNBC’s Delivering Alpha conference, where Einhorn made his case for why this “boring” stock might just be his next big win.

CNH, once known as Case New Holland, has been steamrolled by falling crop prices. Corn, for example, has sunk from north of $6 a bushel in 2023 to closer to $4 in 2024. In an industry with the tightest of margins, you can bet your almanac that farmers aren’t exactly rushing out to buy new tractors right now. As a result, CNH’s earnings are projected to drop from a $1.70 peak in 2023 to about $1 a share in 2025.

But Einhorn’s no rookie, he doesn’t care about today’s numbers, he’s playing the long game. He explained, “You pay a high multiple for cyclical trough earnings and a lower multiple for peak earnings.” Let me spell it out for you: He’s taking a value play out of Buffett’s book, betting on the ag equipment cycle swinging back up. And he thinks CNH is ridiculously undervalued even at its current lows.

At roughly 10 times projected earnings, compared to the market’s average price-to-earnings ratio of 23, Einhorn sees a yard sale bargain. And if the cycle turns as expected, CNH could be pulling in $2 a share, potentially doubling the stock price.

While you wait for that upcycle, CNH is actually doing some pretty attractive stuff. The company is actively buying back stock and pays out a dividend yield of 4.7%. Plus, it’s not buried in debt like some of its competitors (looking at you, AGCO). For a company in a downcycle, it’s surprisingly well-positioned.

That’s probably why Einhorn calls CNH a “no-brainer” value play in a market where cheap stocks are as rare as a clean restroom in a gas station on a road trip (except Bucees).

CNH isn’t the only farm stock Einhorn’s interview lifted. Shares of AGCO and Deere, both also in the middle of their own ag downturns, rose 3.2% and 1.3%. Einshorn estimates the agricultural equipment sector is currently 20% below its average cycle. “Three or four years from now, it’ll probably be 20% above,” he said. To him, it’s not a question of if the rebound happens, but when.

P.S. Watching the Tennessee Titans faceplant their way to 2-7 is painful, but knowing 2-8 is basically locked in? That’s soul-crushing. Honestly, I’m sick of losing. You know what else I’m sick of? Watching your favorite online stock guru flop around in the markets like a quarterback who forgot how to throw. It’s embarrassing, really.

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