Want to Bet on the Next President? Robinhood Just Opened the Door to U.S. Election Contracts

Well, well, well, if it isn’t Robinhood coming in hot with yet another “innovative” move. Just as they got everyone jazzed up over 22-hour-a-day trading (because who doesn’t want to trade at 4 a.m. and impulse trade, right?), Vlad (the CEO with the weirdest hair you’ve ever seen and also looks eerily similar to Roaring Kitty) decided to dip his locks into the high-stakes game of U.S. presidential election contracts. 

Starting Monday, Robinhood will let users trade contracts predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. It’s like Robinhood saw the excitement around sports betting and thought, “Why not politics?”

So, how does this work? Robinhood’s latest offering is called “event contracts,” where users essentially buy and sell contracts based on their predictions about specific events—in this case, the election outcome. It’s not exactly like owning a stock; it’s more like betting on which way the political winds will blow. It’s kind of like fantasy football but with, you know, the future of America on the line.

For those unfamiliar with event contracts, they’ve been gaining steam lately, especially around events like elections or big economic reports. Platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi have paved the way, with Kalshi even winning a court battle recently to keep election outcome contracts alive, much to the chagrin of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). Apparently, the CFTC’s not thrilled about folks betting on political outcomes, but hey, we’re living in unprecedented times.

Robinhood’s move, however, raises the stakes. They’re rolling this feature out through their derivatives unit and partnering with ForecastEx, operated by Interactive Brokers, to make it happen. But before you grab some white cheddar popcorn, there’s a catch: only U.S. citizens can play this political betting game, and it’ll be available initially to a limited group of users. 

Now, let’s be clear: this isn’t your grandma’s mutual fund. Event contracts are as risky as they come. Case in point? Over on PredictIt, a French trader apparently blew millions on Trump contracts, single-handedly tilting the market. PredictIt swears there’s no manipulation, but when one guy’s bankroll is bigger than a small country’s GDP, you can bet it’ll make the news. So Robinhood’s move into this world signals a serious shift—no longer just the app for “meme stock” day traders, they’re playing with the big boys now.

And Robinhood’s shift from “commission-free pioneer” to “serious market player” seems to be paying off. After introducing futures and index options earlier this year, Robinhood’s stock has more than doubled. 

Launching these contracts right as we head into one of the most polarized elections in modern U.S. history? It’s a bold play. But Robinhood knows that volatility is a moneymaker. Analysts are already predicting major market shake-ups as November 5 draws near, so this new feature lets users get in on the action. And with Robinhood’s new 22-hour trading schedule, they’re ensuring users won’t miss a beat—whether it’s stocks, futures, or the political future of the country.

But will these contracts actually sway voters or influence the election? Probably not. Odds markets like this don’t exactly reflect polling data. They’re more like a mirror of public sentiment—fun to watch but not necessarily accurate. However, for those looking to throw some money at the next president (without technically “voting” in the financial sense), Robinhood just rolled out the red carpet.

P.S. A new trade is about to drop any moment, and it could be the kind that takes off faster than a Halloween sale on November 1st. But don’t take my word for it—our last alert, timed down to the minute (Tuesday, 8:41 am EST, to be exact), soared 72.83% in under five minutes. So, if you’re done hearing about “what could have been,” it’s time to jump on the front lines.

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Stock.News has positions in Robinhood.