Walmart Smashes Earnings While CEO Warns Investors of Tariff Implosion and Price Hikes...

Walmart dropped its Q1 numbers and, predictably, everyone pretended it was fine. U.S. comp sales beat at 4.5%, EPS landed at 61 cents versus the 58-cent whisper, and revenue came in at $165.6 billion… a miss that’s being swept under the rug because no one wants to admit this is all duct-taped together with discounted rotisserie chickens and hope.

(Source: Giphy) 

However, the real news wasn’t in the numbers… it was in what Walmart didn’t say. In short, there was no Q2 profit guidance. Nothing. CFO John David Rainey said the outlook is “exceedingly wide and difficult to predict,” which basically means they don’t know what the hell is going on themselves. This is the biggest retailer on Earth, and they’re basically admitting they have no control over what happens next.

The reason? Trump’s tariffs. Yes, again. Still. Always. Despite a temporary 90-day de-escalation with China that felt like some diplomatic miracle, Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon made it clear: they’re not eating the cost. And they shouldn’t. Retail margins are razor-thin, and this is a company that lives and dies by being the cheapest option for everything from baby formula to toilet brushes. If they start absorbing tariffs, they bleed out. If they pass the costs to consumers, they get torched for price hikes. Either way, someone’s getting screwed, and Walmart’s just trying to make sure it isn’t them.

(Source: Yahoo Finance) 

Meaning, this entire earnings call was a masterclass in corporate hedging. The company reaffirmed its full-year EPS guidance of $2.50 to $2.60 like everything’s stable, all while refusing to talk about the next three months. Additionally, Walmart’s Q2 sales guidance is 3.5% to 4.5%, which sounds fine until you remember that their own Investor Day guidance from April was 3% to 4% for the full year. So either things are accelerating or they’re just throwing darts at a board and hoping no one notices the contradiction.

Regardless, investors really don’t care. As of this morning (before the bell) shares were up 7% YTD, outperforming just about every other retailer still pretending to compete. Target is getting rolled. Amazon is in its own AI fever dream. Walmart is the last big-box player standing that hasn’t completely imploded or tried to become a fintech startup. But don’t confuse that with stability. Walmart is floating in a sea of macro garbage, and the execs know it. They’re managing expectations the same way you manage a lie you’ve told too many times: by not answering direct questions and hoping everyone forgets by next quarter.

(Source: Giphy) 

So yeah, even though Walmart beat earnings… they are walking on thin ice. Because even though they’re still the king of American retail… once Trump decides he wants to “renegotiate” tariffs again or tweet something unhinged about China “stealing our shelves,” Walmart’s entire forecasting model turns into a hallucination. Meaning, keep your head on the swivel going forward, and if you’re a Walmart investor… well, place your bets accordingly. Until next time, friends… 

P.S. Oh, I’m sorry, I didn’t know you liked getting rekt. Let’s face it, retail investors get the short end of the stick all day everyday. It’s the smart money’s world, and we are just living in it–only useful when it comes to liquidity purposes in the market. Meaning, if you’re as pissed off as I was when I found out Milli Vanilli was lip syncing the whole time, then it’s time to go from investing blind, to investing smart. Luckily for you, the key is right here as a Stocks.News premium member. Click here to see exactly how our premium members are printing while others quake in the face of today’s market chaos. 

Stocks.News holds positions in Amazon as mentioned in the article.