U.S. Job Market Mirrors Great Recession… Hiring Rate Falls to 45.2%, Lowest Since 2009

Hiring plans among U.S. employers have fallen to levels not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis, according to new reports Thursday from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Challenger, Gray & Christmas. With the federal government shut down, the Labor Department’s official data has gone dark, leaving these alternative snapshots as the closest thing to a compass.

The Chicago Fed pegged unemployment at 4.34% in September… steady on paper, but one whisper away from 4.4%, the highest since 2021. Layoffs held at 2.1%, but the hiring rate slipped to 45.2%. That drop may sound minor, but it extends a long-running slowdown that now resembles the stalls seen during past downturns.

Challenger’s numbers delivered an even bigger blow. Employers have announced just 204,939 new jobs so far this year, a 58% collapse from the same period in 2024. The last time hiring was this thin was 2009, when companies were still digging out from the wreckage of the Great Recession. Even seasonal jobs (usually the last gasp of optimism heading into the holidays) have thinned to just over 100,000, down from more than 400,000 last year.

With that said, layoff announcements painted a split screen. September’s planned cuts fell sharply from August, but the year-to-date toll has already hit 946,426… the highest since 2020 and 24% above all of last year. Challenger noted that job cuts at this scale tend to show up during recessions or when industries are hit with structural shocks. Technology is back in that conversation: more than 17,000 cuts this year were explicitly tied to artificial intelligence.

“Previous periods with this many job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of automations that cost jobs in manufacturing and technology,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm.

Together, the figures sketch a labor market that looks calm on the surface but turbulent beneath. Stable unemployment suggests resilience… while collapsing hiring plans suggest the opposite. Fewer hires today don’t only mean thinner job listings tomorrow… they ripple outward, hitting wages, consumer demand, and growth. Historically, hiring freezes have often been the canary in the coal mine before broader slowdowns.

Normally, Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s payrolls report would set the tone. Instead, with those sidelined by the shutdown, the Chicago Fed and Challenger updates are the headlights in an unlit tunnel… not perfect, but the only light available as businesses, markets, and policymakers try to gauge what’s next.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.