Trump’s Tariffs Were Supposed to Start World War III… Turns Out They Just Printed $64 Billion

By Stocks News   |   3 weeks ago   |   Stock Market News
Trump’s Tariffs Were Supposed to Start World War III… Turns Out They Just Printed $64 Billion

I’ll be the first to admit it: I’ve criticized President Trump more than once for how he’s handled tariffs. You know the routine. Trump draws a line in the sand (“If countries don’t make a deal with us by July 1, we’re taxing them like the state of California”) and then July 1 hits… and that line gets nudged to August 1. Then September. Then it’s 2026 and we’re still talking about deadlines like they mean something. It’s the same vibe I got from Elon Musk announcing the robotaxi rollout “next year.” Next year. Always next year. Then when we finally do get it, someone’s sitting over a panic button in the front seat (you know, just in case).

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So yeah, I’ve called it all bark, no bite. But I also try to be fair… something you won’t get from the people who worship every word that comes out of Trump’s mouth or the ones who treat him like a walking economic Chernobyl no matter what he does. And right now? I’ve gotta say… he’s crushing it. In this current phase of the tariff war, Trump’s not bluffing. He’s not backpedaling. He’s not sending out JD Vance to smooth things over while quietly pushing the deadline back another quarter. He’s going full scorched earth… and the global response has been, well, underwhelming (which is good for the US.

We're talking $64 billion in customs revenue in Q2 alone. For reference, that's $47 billion more than the same period last year. It’s a historic haul, especially for a guy who was mocked just months ago for “always wimping out” when the pressure built. And again, most importantly… almost no one’s hitting back. Only two countries (China and Canada) have even bothered to retaliate. And even they look like they’re just going through the motions at this point.

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China saw exports to the U.S. drop by a third in May after tariffs spiked to 145%. They blinked. Fast. The two sides quietly agreed to de-escalate, landing on a 90-day pause and dialing tariffs down to 30%. (In diplomatic terms, that’s the trade war equivalent of saying “my bad” and ordering drinks for the table.)

As for Canada, they came out swinging earlier this year with $155 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and auto parts (Canadian dollars that is)… mostly for show. Think: political posturing dressed up as economic policy. It sounded tough on the campaign trail (like when grandma calls a kid’s meltdown “spirited”). But since then? They’ve quietly walked it back, opting for a more pragmatic tone… because when 20% of your GDP depends on U.S. trade, you don’t pick a fight unless you’re sure you can finish it.

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And Mexico? They didn’t even bother throwing a punch. After getting hit with 25% tariffs back in March, President Claudia Sheinbaum signaled she’d rather strike a deal than escalate. (Hard to argue with the math… roughly 70% of Mexico’s exports head straight to the U.S., and Trump’s team is well aware of that leverage.) But still, you would’ve expected more of a kicking and screaming fight at first.

The EU has made the most noise, but even they haven’t pulled the trigger. They keep drafting these ominous-sounding lists of products to target (like Boeing jets and Kentucky bourbon) but haven’t actually attached tariff rates or start dates. Instead, they’ve tied their entire counterattack strategy to an “August 1 deadline,” which is like threatening to ground your teenager “next time” they skip curfew. Trump’s already dared them to act. They’re still stalling.

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And there’s a reason everyone’s tucking their tails (yep, that phrase has officially boomeranged back onto the rest of the world). The U.S. isn’t just another trading partner… it’s the trading partner. The sun in the economic solar system. (I guess you could say everyone else is just orbiting us). If you’re a global brand like Apple or Adidas or Mercedes, you’re not about to hike prices 30-40% in the U.S. just to play economic chicken with a president who’s already shown he’ll throw 50% tariffs on you without losing sleep. Supply chain consultants say most companies are eating the costs or spreading them across other markets. (Let me translate that for you: Europeans might end up paying more for your Nikes so Americans don’t get sticker shock at Dick’s Sporting Goods.)

Meanwhile, Trump’s been doing donuts in the White House lawn (on his new gold golf cart from Dubai), posting on Truth Social about how consumer prices are “LOW” and demanding Jerome Powell “BRING DOWN THE FED RATE, NOW!!!” Which would be hilarious if not for the fact that, yes, inflation has ticked up (2.7% in June, with core inflation at 2.9%) and the Fed is now backed into a corner. They’ve got price pressures heating up, a president calling Powell a “numbskull,” and Trump already floating replacements for when his term ends next spring. (We’re about two press releases away from hearing that Mike Lindell is being vetted for Fed Chair.)

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Still, the narrative that tariffs would explode prices overnight hasn’t exactly held. Sure, prices on things like furniture, appliances, and apparel are rising, but not in a way that’s sparked a consumer panic. Hotel prices, airfare, and even car prices have softened in the same window, helping blunt the CPI bump. And with a still-solid labor market, Americans aren’t exactly buckling under the pressure just yet. So where does that leave us? Economists are bracing for a possible stagflation scenario (higher prices and slower growth) but we’re not there yet. In the meantime, Trump’s pulled off something rare in global trade: He’s imposed steep tariffs, brought in record revenue, and watched nearly every other country retreat into strategic silence.

There’s been no global show of force. No coordinated retaliation. Just a whole lot of economic modeling, closed-door meetings, and quiet attempts to avoid getting hit with the next wave of tariffs (needless to say, those haven’t been successful). So yeah… I’ve clowned Trump plenty of times for his trade war theatrics. And honestly, he deserved it. One minute he's setting hard deadlines, the next he's extending them like a professor giving extra credit to students who never showed up. It’s been hard to tell if he’s running a global negotiation… or just winging it on vibes.

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But here’s the uncomfortable truth most people can’t take: either he’s a madman with no coherent strategy… or this is the strategy. The unpredictability, the threats, the walk-backs, the sudden escalations… it might all be part of how he does business. As chaotic as it looks from the outside, it’s producing results. And right now, it looks like he’s just a few more battles away from winning this tariff war.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Apple as mentioned in the article. 

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