Trump’s EU Deal Lights a $750B Fire Under Oil… Wall Street’s Too Busy Tailgating for AI’s Big Show

We all know Trump throws around superlatives like Eli Manning throws Frank’s RedHot… he puts that sh*t on everything. But for once, when he called this trade deal “the biggest of them all,” he might’ve actually been right.

This morning, he wasted no time locking in an agreement with the European Union… aka 27 nations across the pond. Most Americans couldn’t name five EU countries if you gave them France and Italy, but this is a serious bloc: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and pretty much every country that makes great wine and judges us for our pathetic healthcare system. (Except the UK, who peaced out with Brexit and has been wandering the geopolitical parking lot ever since.)

All this to say, the EU isn’t some minor trade partner… it’s the grandaddy of them all (besides China). With a combined GDP of around $16 trillion, the European Union accounts for (looks at notes) roughly 15% of the world’s total economic output. It also represents 450 million consumers, making it one of the most powerful trading docks on the planet.

Now, Trump did cut tariffs down to 15%, well below the 30% napalm he’d been waving around for months. In return, the EU promised to buy $750 billion worth of American oil and gas… an absolute gift basket for U.S. energy. Cheniere, NextDecade, and Venture Global all shot up. Oil followed suit, with WTI jumping 2% past $66, especially after Trump told Russia they’ve got “less than two weeks” to end the Ukraine war. (Although, the odds of that happening feels about as likely as him actually releasing the Epstein files).

You’d think landing a trade deal with 27 countries with one stroke of the pen would move markets at least 1-2%. But despite the scale of the agreement, the market couldn’t give a monkey’s uncle. The S&P 500 dipped 0.1%, the Dow slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq inched up 0.2%... a fitting response to a market so desensitized it needs AI fireworks or a Fed rate cut just to feel something.

Speaking of overstimulation, go ahead and buckle up… 150+ S&P 500 companies are unloading earnings this week, including the core four of the Magnificent Seven: Meta and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Expect every CEO to say “AI” at least 17 times per call (because if you don’t mention machine learning, do you even deserve a multiple?).

As for the big story we’ve all been waiting for, the Fed’s two-day meeting kicks off Tuesday. No one expects a cut (rates are staying at 4.25%–4.50%), but everyone’s praying Powell throws out some language about easing in September. (Or maybe we’ll all have to wait until Trump finds a way to replace him.) Bonus drama: A Trump ally tried to force the Fed to open the meeting to the public, like it was an HOA vote or something. The court shut that down fast.

Meanwhile, Friday’s jobs report is forecast to show just 102,000 new jobs added in July… down from 147,000 the month prior. Adding more pressure to Jerome to crank up the money printers.

Over in the land of “magic internet money,” Coinbase dropped 3.6% after analyst Gus Gala downgraded the stock, pointing to weak Q2 volumes. He says trading activity likely grew just 6%, compared to Wall Street’s estimate of 19%. That’s kind of a problem when your entire business is “please don’t stop clicking Buy.”

And Oppenheimer’s seen enough… this morning, they jacked their S&P 500 year-end target to 7,100… which would be an 11% rally from here and mark the third straight year of 20%+ gains. The last time that happened? Bill Clinton was on national TV insisting he "did not have sexual relations with that woman." So keep an eye on that prediction, they tend to be on the nose more times than not.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta as mentioned in the article.