Trump Shoots Solar, Tariffs Gut Walmart, and the Market Cracks Under Pressure (Again)...

“74% of the time, it works every time” - investors on rate cuts…

Well, the S&P 500 logged its fifth straight losing day today… and if you listened closely, you would’ve heard every YOLO diamond hander on Reddit mumble, “I’ll never financially recover from this.” The S&P dipped -0.4%, while the Nasdaq slid -0.34%. Meanwhile, the Dow went all “get off my lawn” in frustration and shed 152 points, closing at 44,785. 

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Now, in the grand scheme of things, nobody is really panicking yet… but five days of red feels like the market holding its breath, waiting for Jerome Powell to descend on Jackson Hole and tell everyone whether the morphine drip of rate cuts is coming in September. For context, yesterday the CME’s FedWatch tool was at 80%. Today? We’re down to 74%. Which, yes, is a dip… but it still means traders are already betting the house, hoping Powell blinks. 

However, like I mentioned in yesterday’s Final Tally piece, the Fed minutes we received on a silver platter tell a different story. And that dreadful story is that governors are split with two of them saying “thanks, but no thanks” on holding rates, inflation is still about as ugly as a mud fence, and the labor market isn’t cracking fast enough. All while, Powell has the horrific job of talking everyone off the ledge without promising them anything. What a time to be alive. 

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As for individual cards, well, we had quite the action today. For instance, tariffs made Walmart its b*tch after the company missed earnings for the first time since 2022. Sales were strong, profits weren’t… and investors yeeted shares -4%. Not to be outdone, Trump took solar behind the barn and shot it as he announced the U.S. won’t approve new solar or wind projects. As a result, the Invesco Solar ETF sank -3.4%, Sunrun tanked -4.7%, and First Solar dropped -7%. 

Elsewhere, the beauty brand Coty, collapsed -21% after posting a loss and forecasting a weak half-year… and Palantir surprisingly didn’t piss anyone else off as it finally stabilized (up +0.1% after a six-day beating that wiped 16% off the highs). 

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On the plus side, the home of the poop deck (read: Carnival), got some nice attention from Citi after calling the company their top cruise pick with 26% upside thanks to a new beach resort play. Meanwhile, Paramount Sundance popped +14% and Xpend mooned +12%. One company reported a streaming profits surprise and the other had their CEO go full-send on degeneracy with a $3.1 million share purchase. Bigly. 

In the end, the market clearly doesn’t trust itself, so it’s waiting for Powell to say the words that either justify the rally or confirm the bleed. Five days down is nothing in isolation, but the tone is different. Tech is wobbling, retail is under strain, energy transition plays just got kneecapped, and the Fed looks divided… all while us retail investors just want a friggin’ September cut like addicts want their next hit. The only question is whether Powell will be too chaste to give it to us or not. Only time will tell. Until next time, friends… 

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.