Trump Holds 2 Million Federal Paychecks Hostage (Permanently) If Congress Doesn’t Fold by Midnight

With the timer officially set to hit 0 at midnight… President Trump is running a new kind of shutdown “strategery,” and it’s making what happened in 2013 look like a walk in the park. Instead of the usual “send everyone home and we’ll pay them later” routine, Donnie Politics told NBC News he’s ready to fire federal workers permanently if Congress can’t get its act together. “We are going to cut a lot of the people that … we’re able to cut on a permanent basis,” he said, before clarifying he’d “rather not” do it. Translation: if you work in HR at a government agency, your job description just shifted from processing PTO forms to running a guillotine.

Normally, a shutdown means furloughs. Employees sit at home, binge Suits, then come back to work when funding restarts. No harm, no foul (well, except missed paychecks and angry TSA agents). But the White House budget office is already telling agencies to prep for permanent layoffs this time. As in, don’t pack a lunch, pack a cardboard box and GTFO here.

For context, in the 2013 shutdown under Obama, about 40% of federal employees (850,000 people) were benched. This time, Trump is essentially threatening to make that cut the new normal.

Of course, this round of Shutdown Theater isn’t being staged in a vacuum. Republicans, with 53 seats in the Senate, want to pass a stopgap bill through Nov. 21. Democrats are saying “not without Obamacare subsidies.” And Trump’s response is the usual? Accept our plan or deal with mass layoffs. 

(Source: CNBC)

That sets up today’s wild showdown in the Oval Office with Schumer, Jeffries, Johnson, and Thune. If you’re picturing Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier in the Octagon, you’re close… just subtract the cardio and add twice as much finger-pointing. Schumer is warning the meeting could devolve into Trump ranting about grievances instead of actual negotiations (because if there’s one way to settle a grievance it’s to stir the pot before the actual meeting). Johnson, meanwhile, insists it’s just “common sense” to pass the GOP’s plan. Somewhere, the C-SPAN cameras are licking their chops.

Ironically, shutdowns are never about the shutdown itself… they’re about the blame game. Democrats are calling Trump’s permanent-firing threat “mafia-style blackmail.” Republicans say Dems are holding Uncle Sam hostage over health care subsidies that don’t even expire until the end of the year. Either way, services deemed “non-essential” will grind to a halt if the clock strikes midnight Tuesday without a deal. Social Security checks still flow, but good luck getting a new passport or your tax refund processed.

Here’s the thing, in a shutdown, the executive branch gets more discretion than usual. Which means Trump (the guy threatening to take the chainsaw to the federal payroll) would be the one deciding who’s “essential” and who’s expendable. So Schumer might want to tread carefully in today’s negotiations, because the guy across the table isn’t bluffing.

And look, I hate wading into politics because it usually feels like watching clowns argue over who gets to wear the red wig… so I stick to how it actually hits the markets.

History is the best guide here. The 2013 Obama-era shutdown lasted 16 days, and the S&P 500 only slipped about 2% before bouncing right back. Even Trump’s record 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 barely left a mark. Traders tend to shrug it off once a deal is in sight.

That’s why I don’t think we need to flip into freakout mode if today’s White House meeting goes sideways. But with the talk of permanent cuts instead of temporary furloughs, the tone feels different… and that makes it something worth keeping on the radar.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.