The Tradepocalypse Averted… For Now! Inside Trump & Xi’s High-Stakes Preliminary Deal…

Sooo you’re telling me there’s a chance?

After months of tariff chicken, the U.S. and China have apparently “unclenched” and have decided to possibly start playing nice again. Translation:  Somewhere in Kuala Lumpur, American negotiators and Chinese officials just made  prolonged eye contact while agreeing to “We’ll see where this goes”.

(Source: Giphy) 

In short, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. won’t move forward with Trump’s 100% tariffs that were supposed to kick in November 1st… and China might stop pretending it’s allergic to American soybeans. Of course, the deals still a “preliminary framework”, so absolutely no promises on this one. However, in exchange, China said it might rethink its ban on rare earth exports…  the industrial crack cocaine that powers everything from EVs to missiles. If you’ve ever wondered how dependent the U.S. is on Chinese dirt, the answer is “yes.”

(Source: CNBC) 

This whole thing went down on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, where Bessent and Trade Rep Jamieson Greer met with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng to hash out the details. Bessent says the tariff truce could extend past November 10th, which is great news for every soybean farmer who spent the past year praying to the gods of Midwest rain and government subsidies. He told ABC that U.S. soybean farmers “will feel very good” about the deal. Translation: the check’s in the mail.

But the bigger story isn’t necessarily beans… it’s leverage. China controls 90% of global rare earth production, and the U.S. can’t build semiconductors, EVs, or defense systems without them. Trump’s 100% tariff threat was a bluff; China’s rare earth chokehold is a loaded gun. So this “deal” looks less like détente and more like mutual blackmail. Still, things seem to be positive. Trump and Xi are set to meet Thursday at the APEC summit in South Korea to formalize the deal… assuming Beijing actually shows up. With that said, the Chinese side hasn’t confirmed the meeting yet. As for the U.S. agenda, we have soybeans, fentanyl, TikTok, and Taiwan… a.k.a. The modern Four Horsemen of the Tradepocalypse. Also the release of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai. 

(Source: Giphy) 

If it all sounds chaotic, that’s because it is. But it’s also the most progress the two countries have made since the last time Trump and Xi shared a handshake and an awkward dinner photo. Meaning, for now, the market loves it.  Commodities are up. Tariff anxiety’s down. And the phrase “trade truce” is trending again… but that’s now. Tomorrow or even later today… things could be a different story. So place your bets accordingly, friends. Until next time…

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.