The Labor Market Goes ‘Hire for Longer’ With 165K Jobs vs. a 59K Estimate (Rate Hike Incoming?)

“It’s so f*cking big.” - everyone seeing the October jobs report

Your unemployed buddy has absolutely zero excuses. The October jobs report just smashed expectations, with employers adding 165,000 jobs vs. the 59,000 that a select group of classically trained economists predicted. All in favor of revoking their PhDs… again?

The funemployment rate also dipped to 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected). Just how big was the jobs beat, you ask? Well, if the consensus for October was the average American male (59,000), the actual figure was Barry Wood (165,000).

Oh, and the last two months got upwardly revised (ayy). September’s 29,000 flop is now 60,000, and August jumped to 186,000. That’s the same August the BLS cut to 133,000 just a month ago, which means it’s probably about as accurate as Enron’s financials circa 1999.

So who’s doing all this hiring? For once, it wasn’t just healthcare. Professional and business services put the team on their back with 70,000 jobs added (think: your friend who “does consulting”), while healthcare put up another 42,000. Transportation and warehouses added 25,000, and manufacturing chipped in 19,000. So much for Dario’s white-collar bloodbath.

Now, it wasn’t all sh*ts and giggles. The metric that tracks discouraged workers and part-timers who want to go full-time jumped to 7.9% (up 0.3 points), which, not great, Bob. Meanwhile, 421,000 people came back to the labor force, and involuntary part-timers rose by 339,000 to 4.8M. Meaning, your unemployed buddy did get a job… at Spirit Halloween.

WTF does it all mean?

It means the odds of a rate hike are high AF right now. Inflation’s been living rent free in the head of K-Woww (read: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh), and he meets with the gang December 8-9. Traders are now pricing in a 76.8% chance of a hike, up from about 70% before the report, per CME’s FedWatch. Friendly reminder, Missionary CPI’s at 3.7% (core: 2.6%). Hotter wages don’t help either, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year (vs. 0.3% and 2.9% expected). And yes, your raise is still losing to that 3.7% (because, math).

A month ago, Wall Street threw a party over 29,000 jobs, because bad news is good news (read: a sputtering job market means no hike). This month, markets went all “that don’t impress me much” on 165,000. Stock futures were mixed after AI stocks got rekt on Thursday (Nasdaq: -5.5%), and the 10-year yield popped to 4.89%.

As for Donny Jobs, he finally got a blowout number… right after voters handed Congress to the Dems on Tuesday. You might recall he fired the last BLS commissioner over a bad report and called the numbers “RIGGED.” No word yet on 165,000. Now his reward is a rate hike from the guy he hand-picked.

Apparently, all the U.S. labor market needed was some milk b*ner pills, because now, Kevy Kev is about to c*ck block the whole thing...

Until next time, friends! 

 

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.