The Final Tally: Trump Spares Electronics, Then Threatens Them… Markets Rally Regardless

You’d think most billionaires spend their weekends the usual way… lounging at a villa in Italy, cruising the Amalfi Coast on a yacht, maybe wrapping up 18 holes before a sunset pool party with the grandkids.

But Trump? He spends his weekends plotting trade wars between putts. Sure, he probably tees off like the rest of them, but somewhere between the front nine and a Diet Coke, he’s cooking up new ways to jack up tariffs on anything that moves. 

Case in point: while most people were still deciding between mowing the lawn or going to Costco, the White House dropped another tariff curveball (this time a good one). In a surprise move, the administration announced that smartphones, computers, semiconductors, and other key electronics would be temporarily exempt from the new round of reciprocal tariffs Trump had been teasing all week.

And just like that, Wall Street flipped the risk switch back on. But of course, the party got weird when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick came in swinging, saying those same electronics weren’t really off the hook… they’re just in a “different” tariff bucket now. And then Trump jumped on Truth Social to all-caps scream that the “WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN” is under investigation for national security.

Despite the mixed signals, today was a green day on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose 1.4%, the Nasdaq added 1.4%, and the Dow gained 1.3%. Investors pretty much all looked at one another and said, “He didn’t un-exempt Apple yet, so... BUY?”

All in all, Apple soared 5%. Dell rallied 4%. Even Nvidia, which has been whiplashed all year, climbed nearly 2%. Even Ford and GM turned positive after Trump hinted at cutting car part tariffs some slack.

Housing stocks are also getting hot again. Wedbush said builders like Toll Brothers and PulteGroup could benefit from targeting “move-up” buyers… aka people with money and no patience for 1-bedroom starter homes.

Oil’s still in the gutter. West Texas Intermediate is hovering around $61 a barrel (down over 15% from its March highs) and unless it slips below $50, don’t expect Trump to lift a finger. According to JPMorgan, that’s the unofficial panic line. Until then, he’s probably too busy tweeting about tariffs to remember his whole “energy dominance” thing.

Meanwhile, stocks might be on a high, but the job market is looking a little pale. The New York Fed says the average American now believes there’s a 15.7% chance they’ll lose their job in the next year. That’s the highest level since March 2024 (not exactly a vote of confidence in the economy).

Still, Fed Governor Christopher Waller tried to keep everyone calm, saying the inflation from these tariffs will be “transitory.”

Right. Because the last time they used that word in 2021, inflation hung around longer than my old college roommate who “just needed a place to crash for a few weeks.”

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.