The Final Tally: S&P Freezes As Traders Translate Jerome’s Speech… Dot Plot Causes Fed “Civil War"

Well, happy hump day… if your idea of fun is watching the market move like it’s stuck in rush hour with a flat tire. If you couldn’t tell by that opening line, stocks managed a slow-motion rally today, with the Dow sneaking up 0.1% (try to contain yourself), the S&P 500 adding a boring 0.2%, and the Nasdaq doing its best to look bullish with a 0.4% gain. Oil prices crashed early but recovered once traders remembered we might still be lobbing missiles at Iran. Treasury yields hovered near 4.36%, just waiting for Powell to do… literally anything (get in line).

Speaking of international stability… Trump was back on the mic today, doing his best “maybe I’ll bomb Iran, maybe I won’t” routine. Iran of course responded with a threat that the U.S. would face “irreparable damage” if it joined the fight. So yeah, if you hear something that sounds like a rocket flying outside your house when you’re in bed tonight… it’s probably just your amazon package… probably.

Oh, and while he was at it, Trump also called Jerome Powell “stupid” and blamed him for ruining the economy. What’s that old quote about honey and vinegar? Donald clearly never read How to Win Friends And Influence People.

But let’s not pretend anyone was watching the charts… because Jerome “Data Dependent” Powell just dropped another episode of The Fed: We Might Cut, But Probably Won’t and it was the main event. In its latest “dot plot” (aka a connect-the-dots game for adults with PhDs and no common sense), the Fed still expects two rate cuts this year. So… maybe yes, maybe no. If that sounds confusing, you’re not alone. Honestly, I could probably translate Spanish better than this, and I slept through every class that wasn’t lunch.

Powell’s big message was (you’re gonna be shocked) “We’re waiting on data.” But thanks to a hiring freeze at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the data might be cooked with fewer ingredients. “The surveys will be more volatile,” Powell said, which is Fed-speak for “I have no idea what I’m doing.”

As for inflation, Powell thinks it’ll calm down… unless tariffs, labor markets, housing, or the ghost of Paul Volcker say otherwise. Speaking of housing, Powell pretty much said, “Yeah, that’s broken. Not our problem. Best of luck… maybe ask your parents for help, or consider moving to a place where the cows outnumber the people.” 

So to give you some sort of a takeaway from this: the Fed’s holding rates, kinda-sorta planning cuts (but can’t agree on how or when), flying partially blind, and crossing their fingers that the next batch of data wasn’t gathered by unpaid interns in a mall food court. Honestly, it’s starting to feel a lot like the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight… overhyped, confusing, and probably not worth losing sleep over every time Jerome steps up to the mic.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.