The Final Tally: Revenge of the Fed… Palantir: You’re Not That Guy Pal

The fun thing about earnings season is that it’s like report card day for grown-ups. The not fun part is that sometimes it reminds you you're not as special as you thought.

Just ask Alex Karp. After spending the last year on a never-ending high (complete with wild hair and an open disdain for shortsellers), Palantir’s CEO finally had to face a little thing called valuation gravity. The company beat Q1 revenue estimates (pulling in $884 million) and reminded everyone it's got the Pentagon and Fortune 500s on speed dial. On paper, it’s a solid quarter. But there was one problem.

Shares tanked over 14% as analysts zeroed in on one uncomfortable truth: the valuation acts as if they’ve cured cancer, worldwide hunger, and male baldness (not sure what took them so long to realize this but better late than never). Jefferies called it “irrational,” with the stock trading at 56x 2026 revenue. Even after solid growth in its U.S. business, Wall Street clearly decided… nice quarter, but you're not that guy pal.

That selloff helped pull the whole market down with it. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow dropped 272 points (0.7%), and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. Although, it’s not all Palantir’s fault. Nervous energy is building ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision… and investors are already repositioning.

Making things worse, Trump decided to go off-script… again. After Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised trade deals were just around the corner, Trump shrugged and said, “We don’t have to sign anything.” (Which is great, because mixed signals are exactly what markets love.)

After rising 18% over the last month, Tesla had an off day dropping 2% after brutal sales numbers across Europe. UK registrations collapsed 62%, German sales fell 46%, and BYD is now mopping the floor with them in key markets. And then there’s Disney. The House of Mouse reports earnings tomorrow. Wall Street wants answers on parks, streaming, and whether cruise bookings can float profits. But rumor has it, a forecasted Disney+ subscriber loss could steal the show.

The Fed wraps up its meeting tomorrow, and while nobody expects Jerome Powell to touch rates, all eyes are on his post-game press conference… the only place where a single awkward pause could wipe out billions in market cap.

Or will he finally blink and drop a hint that rate cuts might be on deck if the slowdown keeps creeping in? And honestly, don’t rule out a little revenge theater. After all, Trump did float the idea of firing him… so if Powell decides to pull the fire alarm on the economy out of spite, would anyone really be shocked? I’m expecting a red day tomorrow… but let’s just see how it all plays out.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.