The Final Tally: History All But PROVES a Market “Rug Pull” is Coming?

I get it… doom-and-gloom Twitter bears are exhausting. They predict a crash every other week, and just like a broken clock, they’re only right occasionally (which somehow justifies their 10-hour podcast episodes on how they’ve "called every major event since George Washington blasted Fetty Wap over the Potomac to defeat the British"). But this time, they might actually have a point.

But first, a little history lesson you… How often has the S&P 500 gained 20%+ three years in a row? Just once… during the late ‘90s tech boom from 1995 to 1998. And back-to-back 20% years? Only three times since 1950. So if you’re expecting another easy win in 2025, you might want to hedge those bets.

Even Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer is flashing warning signals, saying the bull market is in its “late innings.” In other words: “Hope you enjoyed the ride because the wheels might be coming off soon.” Right now, only 62% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average… historically, not great.

Markets were all over the place Tuesday. The Dow ticked up 0.3% (because dividend stocks always find a way to win), the S&P 500 barely budged at 0.1%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%, weighed down by Tesla’s 5% dive.

Tesla took a beating after Elon Musk’s bargain-bin $97.4 billion bid for OpenAI got flat-out rejected… and to make matters worse, China’s BYD teamed up with DeepSeek to develop self-driving tech at a fraction of the cost. (Rough day for Elon.)

Apple popped 2.7% on news it’s partnering with Alibaba to develop AI-powered iPhones in China (nothing screams "data security" like outsourcing AI to a country that definitely respects privacy.)

Super Micro Computer dropped 7% after a five-day, 60% rally as investors did something shocking… took profits. 

Coca-Cola, on the other hand, jumped 3.7% after crushing revenue estimates.

And Carvana, the zombie stock that refuses to die, got a nice shot in the arm after JPMorgan and Wells Fargo hiked price targets.

Intel also surged over 7% after some D.C. politicians hyped up U.S.-made AI systems (it’s still down 52% on the year).

Now, all eyes are on Wednesday’s CPI report. Will inflation back up Powell’s “no rush” stance on rate cuts, or could they pull the unthinkable (like the Mavs trading Luka to the Lakers) and actually raise rates? That would send Trump into an all-night Twitter spiral for sure.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.