The Final Tally: PMI Screams Recession, Trump Blames Powell, 2009 Imports, Stonks Up (Groundhog Day)

You ever watched Groundhog Day with Bill Murray? (Yes, the guy who wakes up to the same nightmare over and over again while pretending to smile through it.) That’s exactly what this market feels like. Trump starts another trade war rant at 2:17 a.m. on Truth Social, says Xi is “extremely hard to deal with,” claims a call is coming soon… and the market just yawns and ticks higher regardless.

And today was no exception. The S&P 500 inched up 0.2%, the Nasdaq added 0.4%, and the Dow sat around like a lawn chair… flat and useless. That rally came in spite of some seriously ugly economic data. ADP’s private-sector payroll report showed just 37,000 jobs added in May. For context, analysts were expecting 110,000. April’s number was already weak at 60,000, and even that got revised down. So this was the worst hiring month in over two years, and investors all collectively thought, “Eh, Powell’s got us.”

Speaking of Powell, Trump wasted no time throwing him under the bus (again), rage-posting that “Too Late Powell” needs to cut rates now. The guy sees bad job numbers and immediately turns into a full-time rate-cut lobbyist.

And there’s even more meat on the bone. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 49.9 in May. That’s below the 50 line that signals growth and marks only the fourth time it’s dipped into contraction territory in the last five years. And earlier in the week, the manufacturing PMI also showed contraction, with import levels hitting lows we haven’t seen since 2009 (not a great year financially, just ask your parents).

Still, the market keeps pushing forward. Even Trump’s move to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% (with the UK being the only exception) didn’t do much to slow it down. Today’s the deadline for trading partners to submit their “best offers” to avoid more tariff hikes in July. But if Trump keeps pissing off the other side before negotiations even start, that Zoom call with Xi might get cut short.

And poor Tim Cook, Apple took another hit. Needham downgraded the stock to Hold, saying it’s trading at about 26 times projected 2026 earnings (a 50% premium over its 10-year average) and that it’s facing stiff AI competition. Shares are down 18% year-to-date, making Apple the worst performer among the Magnificent Seven. Being the “iPhone company” doesn’t cut it anymore when everyone else is pitching ChatGPT clones and robot CEOs. CrowdStrike wasn’t spared either. Shares plunged nearly 7% after its revenue forecast of $1.14 to $1.15 billion came in just shy of Wall Street’s $1.16 billion estimate. (Not sure how missing by $10 million is enough to signal a shareholder panic attack when the company’s worth $114 billion, but what do I know?)

And Dollar Tree tanked 7% too. Management warned EPS could drop 50% this quarter, citing (you guessed it) Trump’s tariffs. When discount stores are crying poor, that’s usually your cue to worry. One of the few bright spots was Thor Industries. The RV maker surprised to the upside, posting earnings of $2.53 per share on $2.89 billion in revenue. Analysts had expected just $1.79 per share. So yeah, Americans are still buying recreational vehicles (not sure what to make of that).

And if all else fails, companies are leaning into crypto again. As we know, GameStop joined the ranks of Michael Saylor wannabes, adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet. But get this… according to Bernstein, 80 companies now hold about 3.4% of all Bitcoin in circulation (it’s a copycat game, what can I say?).

So yeah… same story, different day. The data’s deteriorating, the Fed’s being heckled like it’s open mic night, and Trump’s setting foreign policy via sleep-deprived social media posts. And yet, markets keep inching higher. Bill Murray would understand.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.