The Final Tally: Consumer Confidence Collapse Signals IMMINENT Recession—Are We Doomed?

The stock market is doing that weird thing where bad news keeps piling up, but somehow, bulls are sticking around as if the whole month of March wasn’t a friggin’ bloodbath. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.16% gain on Tuesday, marking its third straight green session, and the Nasdaq tacked on 0.46%.  Meanwhile, the Dow did a whole lot of nothing, inching up by a whopping four points—or as us traders call it, a rounding error.

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The bad news I was talking about though? The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index just dropped to 92.9, blowing past recession-warning levels. The future expectations gauge? 65.2—the lowest reading in 12 years. In normal times, this would be a flashing red light that Americans are bracing for economic doom, but this market is powered by vibes, not fundamentals. And the vibes? They’re all about tariffs, tariffs, and more tariffs. 

In short, Wall Street has been holding its collective breath over the April 2 tariff deadline, waiting to see whether Trump is about to throw the global economy into chaos or just mildly inconvenience it. For instance, yesterday stocks ripped higher after reports surfaced that the White House might narrow the scope of its trade war 2.0—because nothing says “rational market” like a 600-point Dow rally based on a rumor. Meaning, as of right now, markets are still guessing, and that only means more volatility ahead.

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On the other hand, if you’re looking for the one sector that isn’t bleeding out this month, it’s energy, which is somehow up 3.2% in March while everything else is getting wrecked. The biggest winners? EQT (+13%) and Expand Energy (+11%), because what’s better to distract everyone from an economic downturn than oil money? With that said though, Vistra and Public Service Enterprise Group did dip -2.32% and -2.29%  today (presumably because nobody still knows what the hell is going on).  

More on the corporate front, Cloudflare jumped 2% after Bank of America went from calling it garbage to calling it a buy, citing improving fundamentals and AI tailwinds (of course). Meanwhile, KB Home got obliterated (-5%) after posting a big miss on revenue and earnings, then making it worse by cutting 2025 guidance. Spoiler: People still aren’t stepping over themselves to buy houses at 7% mortgage rates. But, but, but… don’t you worry, because Carvana popped nearly 4% after Morgan Stanley raised its rating. Turnaround of the century, I tell ya.

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Bottom line to all of this, the market is running on pure speculation, and it’s somewhat glorious. Between data screaming recession, looming tariffs, and consumer confidence that’s evaporating—stocks are still holding their own. Why? Because this market doesn’t care about reality—it cares about narratives, liquidity, and the occasional Trump/Elon tweet. 

So yeah, strap in, friends. Because if history tells us anything, Wall Street will keep buying the dip—until it doesn’t. Translation: Things are going to get spicy, especially with GDP, PCE, and jobs reports dropping soon. Until next time… 

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.

P.S. Just when you thought our beloved congressmen couldn’t get any greasier, one Republican lawmaker decided to YOLO $175k into a stock—right before a major FDIC announcement hit. Lucky timing? Insider edge? You be the judge. We broke it all down inside last week's Stocks.News premium article—click here to check it out ASAP! 

Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.