The Final Tally: Barclays Begs: “Don’t Fight Trump!”... Your 401(k) Hinges on Brunch with China

Barclays is bringing back one of Wall Street’s most chaotic commandments: Don’t fight Trump. Whether he’s striking trade deals or tossing out random tariff numbers like a contestant on The Price Is Right, markets still flinch every time he opens his mouth (or fires up Truth Social on the 16th hole). “A lot is baked in,” said Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau, “but the ‘don’t fight Trump’ mantra may still prevail so long as there is a path towards more deals & less tariffs.”

That mantra is being put to the test as Trump preps for weekend trade talks with China in Geneva. Today, he fired off a Truth Social post saying an “80% Tariff on China seems right!”... a hot take that got plenty of attention (not because it was logical, but because it was somehow lower than the current 145%). Honestly, the most surprising part is that he didn’t type it in ALL CAPS.

A few hours later, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt jumped in for damage control, saying Trump just “threw it out there.” You know, like a dad guessing how many jellybeans are in the jar… except it’s the global economy. No final number yet. That’s up to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who’s heading to Geneva this weekend for what promises to be the most uncomfortable brunch negotiation in recent memory.

The confusion left investors in wait and see mode. The Dow slipped 97 points (0.2%), the S&P 500 hugged the flatline, and the Nasdaq ticked 0.1% lower. For the week, all three major indexes suffered mild losses.

But a few stocks broke out of the fog. Tesla jumped 5% and is up nearly 15% over the past three weeks, driven by CEO Elon Musk promising to spend more time at the company as he distances himself from his role in Trump’s orbit. Lyft rocketed 21% after increasing its stock buyback plan to $750 million. CEO David Risher said they’re “not seeing anything to worry about,” which is exactly what someone says right before a horror movie soundtrack kicks in. Pinterest climbed 10% after beating expectations with 570 million monthly users and upbeat ad revenue guidance.

On the losing end, Expedia sank 10% after missing revenue estimates, and Palantir dropped another 2% amid valuation concerns, capping a rough week that erased $35 billion in market cap.

And over in crypto land, Bitcoin broke above $102K… just days after I called out how billionaires and institutions might be stitching together a manufactured bull run (nice to see them following the script, check out the article here). Now, all eyes turn to Geneva. If the talks go well, we might keep this momentum. But markets have a funny way of flipping… just when things start looking up (or at least coasting sideways), that’s usually when the rug gets pulled.

If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.