Tesla’s “Legendary October” is Off to a Rough Start Thanks to Their Dismal Q3 Deliveries

Well, Tesla Bros (looking at you), if you were banking on the company’s Q3 delivery report kicking off a historic October for Elon Musk, it’s time to adjust your expectations—because this might just be more awkward than when the Cybertruck’s “bulletproof” window shattered during the big reveal.

The numbers are in, and let’s just say, if Elon Musk was hoping for a standing ovation, he might need to get used to polite golf claps.

Tesla just dropped their third-quarter vehicle production and delivery report, and it’s definitely not the start to October shareholders were hoping for. Here are the numbers: Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles and produced 469,796 in Q3 2024. That sounds impressive, right? Except Wall Street analysts were expecting 463,310 deliveries. So yeah, just shy of expectations. I guess it could be worse?

The company saw a 6.4% increase in deliveries compared to the previous quarter, but even with that, it wasn’t enough to meet analyst estimates. Tesla stock took an immediate 5% hit after the report. If this is any indicator of how the October 10th “We, Robot” event will go, we might be in for another disappointment.

Tesla’s struggle to meet delivery targets isn’t happening in a vacuum. The EV landscape is more cutthroat than ever, with competition popping up like mushrooms after a rainy day (if you live up north, you know). In China, Tesla is up against stiff competition like BYD, Geely, and Nio. And over in Europe, BMW dethroned Tesla for the first time as the top battery electric vehicle seller. Yeah, that’s gotta sting.

In the U.S., legacy automakers like Ford and General Motors are also creeping in, making EVs less of a Tesla-dominated market and more of a free-for-all. Ford is set to report its Q3 results soon, and GM already posted a 60% increase in EV sales year-over-year. Granted, their numbers are still tiny compared to Tesla, but the fact that they’re gaining ground shows how much competition has intensified.

To maintain its lead, Tesla has been cutting prices like a department store during a going-out-of-business sale. But all those price cuts and incentives? Yeah, they’ve started to eat away at the company’s profit margins. Sure, you can sell more cars by knocking a few grand off the sticker price, but it’s starting to feel like Tesla’s sacrificing long-term profitability for short-term delivery targets.

And to make matters worse: Tesla still has to deliver over 516,000 vehicles in Q4 just to meet last year’s figure of 1.81 million. That’s more than half a million cars in three months. Anyone else hearing that “Mission Impossible” theme in their head right now?

What’s Tesla planning to do to turn things around? Well, October 10th marks the big We, Robot event, where the company is expected to unveil its latest autonomous driving tech. 

While Elon Musk has been teasing self-driving cars for what seems like ages, the actual progress has felt more like watching someone assemble IKEA furniture—slow, frustrating, and with no clear end in sight. This event could be Tesla’s shot at proving it’s still ahead of the curve, but with competition already rolling out robotaxis, Tesla might need more than flashy promises to impress this time around.

While competitors like Waymo and Pony.ai are already operating robotaxi services, Tesla is still talking in terms of “someday.” And if Musk’s history of making bold promises is any indication, we might want to hold off on booking our first robotaxi ride.

Despite all this, Tesla remains the top dog in the U.S. EV market, outselling its nearest rival, Hyundai, by a landslide. But the pressure is on. Investors are going to be paying close attention to profit margins in the upcoming earnings report, especially after this latest miss.

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Stock.News has positions in Tesla, Google, and Ford.