Tesla Deep Dive: Shares Plummet, Deliveries Crash, and Musk Pleads Trump for Help–Is There Hope?

It’s clear that Tesla is in the middle of a full-blown tailspin—and not the sexy kind where Musk tweets through it and the stock magically rebounds. The company just posted its first annual sales decline ever. Its gross margins are tanking. Its stock is down over 36% this year and 51% off its high. Most of the headlines are about layoffs, missed delivery targets, and Elon Musk either begging Trump for help or picking public fights with regulators. Meanwhile, investors are trying to figure out whether we’re watching a temporary rough patch or the start of a long, slow descent into irrelevance. 

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However, it’s not like Tesla doesn’t still have a lot going for it. The company is sitting on nearly $30 billion in cash. It still has the most robust charging infrastructure in the game. It’s profitable—something most of its so-called “EV competitors” can’t say with a straight face. And yes, the brand power is still there. Tesla is still Tesla. But the cracks are widening, and no one’s buying the idea that humanoid robots and a subscription-based version of Full Self-Driving are going to save the day anytime soon.

The financials paint a very different picture than the hype. Revenue declined year-over-year in 2024. Net income dropped 33%. Free cash flow is down. Vehicle deliveries fell, quite spectacularly—and while Musk is out here promising robots and robotaxis and AI-powered everything, the Model S and X are ancient, the Cybertruck is overhyped and underdelivering, and competition is kneecapping Tesla across every price point. BYD is coming for the crown. Ford and GM are clawing back U.S. market share. China’s throwing out EVs like candy on Halloween. And honestly, there's really no clear answer to the $25,000 EV problem that Tesla has been “working on” for years.

(Source: AP News) 

However, the one thing that Tesla’s competition doesn’t have, is the man, the myth, the legend and the joke himself: Elon Musk. The man is still Tesla’s most valuable asset and most dangerous liability. He’s both the reason this company is worth anything and the reason it’s now so hard to take seriously. He’s spread across five companies, constantly inserting himself into culture war bullshit, and running Tesla like a side hustle. The board has shown zero independence. Most of the executive team is gone. And every time Elon opens his mouth, there’s a 50/50 chance the stock drops five percent. Which in 2025, is definitely not something to be proud of. 

But, but, but… Tesla’s initially expected to sell around 2 million vehicles this year. That’s decent growth—about 16%—but it’s nowhere near the triple-digit glory days investors got drunk on. And margins? Automotive gross margins are now expected to “stabilize” in the 16-18% range. Translation: the days of 25%+ margins are over, and that sexy vertical integration story? It’s losing its edge in a market where price cuts are the only way to keep people buying.

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Additionally, according to Tesla’s future outlook, revenue is projected to hit $127.6 billion this year, which is up from the estimated $107.12 billion in 2024.  Meanwhile management is guiding free cash flow toward a long-term target of 10%. Which is nice, but it’s also what boring–a$$ industrials like Caterpillar crank out without having to promise the world humanoid robots in memes at 2 a.m. 

So with that, why is Wall Street in all its glory still kind of into the stock? Because they’re addicted, that’s why. Tesla’s still the gateway drug to “the future” and nothing shows that more clearly than 21 buy ratings vs. only 8 sell ratings out of 38 Wall Street analysts covering Tesla. For instance, analysts at Morgan Stanley still have a $430 price target because they think Tesla’s going to transform from a car company into an AI & robotics juggernaut. They’re betting on robotaxis, Optimus, and some kind of Skynet-lite future where Tesla is basically Boston Dynamics with a better marketing team.

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And yet, like mentioned, a few (8) aren’t buying it anymore. HSBC slapped an “underperform” rating on the stock. U.S. News has a more grounded price target of $249. And to be fair, that’s probably closer to reality right now even though the consensus is projecting a price target of $312.65 over the next 12 months. 

Which is why in my opinion, the best thing for Tesla to go from here is to shut the hell up and execute. Enough with the robot videos and vague AI promises. Deliver the cheaper EV. Refresh the lineup. Fix the margin compression. Investors are done grading this company on a curve. The market isn’t going to keep handing out trillion-dollar valuations for vibes. Tesla needs to start acting like a serious company again—one that can scale profitably, compete globally, and innovate faster than copycats.

(Source: CNBC) 

Second, leadership needs to actually act like leadership again. Either Musk focuses on Tesla, or the board grows a spine and finds someone who will. The “key person risk” situation has gone from theoretical to flat-out irresponsible. If Tesla was any other company, Musk would’ve been sidelined by now. But the cult of Elon has kept that conversation off-limits. It shouldn’t be anymore.

And third, Tesla has to stop pretending it’s immune to macroeconomic reality. Higher interest rates, tighter credit, and less generous EV subsidies are here. Price cuts are no longer a competitive advantage—they’re a symptom of getting absolutely body-bagged in this market (read: Stellantis employee discounts to the public). Tesla’s margins are shrinking because its pricing power is gone. That’s what happens when you sit on the same car designs for a decade while the rest of the market catches up. 

(Source: Giphy) 

Of course, the company’s valuation still prices in god-tier execution across cars, energy, AI, and robotics—with zero room for error. For instance, Tesla’s P/E ratio is currently trading at 7.5x while its competitors average around 0.5x to 1.5x. But with Tesla stacking Ls all year, the best thing for overall market sanity is to face reality at some point. 

So while it’s not necessarily time to jump ship, I also don’t believe it’s time to double down like it’s 2020 again. Tesla is in deep correction territory not because of Tesla’s numbers itself, but because of its new narrative (tariffs, and Elon’s side-hustle as a federal employee executioner). The story is broken. Investors aren’t buying the myth anymore. And until Tesla proves it can grow again without Elon single-handedly propping it up, there’s no reason to believe this isn’t just the beginning of a very long comedown. 

(Source: Giphy) 

So with that, my verdict is 100% hold. It just doesn’t make sense to pay luxury prices for a car company that can’t stop leaking talent, missing deadlines, and crying to Donnie Politics to save them. Obviously, that might all change in the near-future, but for now, place your bets accordingly, and as always, stay safe and stay frosty, friends! Until next time… 

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Stocks.News holds positions in Tesla as mentioned in the article.