Super Bowl Commercials Go Tradeable as Kalshi and Polymarket Test the Insider Trading Tripwire

As the Patriots and Seahawks prepare for the Super Bowl, prediction markets are entering uncharted territory… and drawing scrutiny over potential insider trading.

Kalshi and Polymarket have opened trading on a range of Super Bowl-related outcomes, including which companies will air commercials during Super Bowl 60. Users can buy and sell contracts tied to brands such as Salesforce, Verizon, and Coca-Cola, effectively turning advertising decisions into tradeable events.

Super Bowl 60, set for Feb. 8 in Santa Clara and featuring the Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots, is already expected to be one of the most expensive advertising showcases in history.

According to Mark Marshall, chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBC, the network has sold out its ad inventory for the game. Thirty-second spots are averaging around $8 million, with between five and ten commercials selling for more than $10 million each. Technology companies account for the largest share of advertisers this year, and roughly 40% of brands airing ads have never bought Super Bowl inventory before, Marshall said.

That level of demand is precisely what makes the new prediction markets controversial.

Unlike traditional sports bets (where outcomes are unknown until the game is played) Super Bowl ad placements are finalized well in advance. Hundreds, and potentially thousands, of employees across advertisers, agencies, and media companies already know whether their company will appear during the broadcast.

That raises the possibility that individuals with advance knowledge could trade on information not yet public.

On Kalshi, contracts are priced between $0 and $1 and trade similarly to equities. A correct “Yes” contract pays out $1, minus fees. In January, for example, Spotify-related contracts briefly surged before retreating, illustrating how quickly prices can move based on perceived information.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket are also offering a wide range of other Super Bowl-related markets, including which celebrities will appear in commercials and who might attend the game. Polymarket focuses largely on binary “Yes/No” outcomes, while Kalshi offers more granular event-based contracts.

Insider trading is prohibited on prediction markets under existing law. However, enforcement remains a challenge.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has faced questions about its authority over event contracts, particularly those tied to sports. Recent court decisions have suggested that some sports-related event contracts may not qualify as derivatives under the CFTC’s jurisdiction, though those rulings are under appeal.

“If sports event contracts aren’t derivatives, then criminal authorities could still prosecute insider trading on prediction markets under a wire fraud theory,” said Jack Murphy, now senior counsel at Akin Gump.

The regulatory backdrop remains in flux. Earlier this month, new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig directed staff to withdraw a proposed rule that would have banned prediction markets on sports and politics, signaling that updated guidance is forthcoming.

Despite the uncertainty, interest in prediction markets continues to grow. Kalshi is on pace for roughly 44% month-over-month growth in trading volume, according to Piper Sandler, and its contract on the Super Bowl winner has already generated more than $150 million in volume.

As prediction markets creep into advertising, entertainment, and live sports, regulators are going to have to answer an uncomfortable question: what happens when people are trading on outcomes that some already know? This year’s Super Bowl is shaping up to be an early test of where that line gets drawn.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Verizon, Spotify, and Coca-Cola as mentioned in the article.