PCE Report Finally Shows Up to Work While Giving Powell Greenlight For More Money Printer…

“Beautiful numbers. The most perfect numbers. There’s never been numbers like this!” - Trump after reading the PCE report, probably… 

After a full two months late (thanks Congress), the government finally coughed up the September PCE report on Friday… and somehow the market didn’t turn to sh*t because of it. According to the receipts, Core PCE came in at 0.2% for the month, 2.8% year-over-year. Headline: 0.3%, also 2.8%. Bigly. 

(Source: Giphy) 

The bigger news though is that while the markets treated it like a formality, rate-cut odds barely moved. Meaning, the tape is still sitting at 87% odds in favor of Powell giving us another dose of financial irresponsibility. How can we be so sure, you ask? Because this was the last print before Wednesday's meeting. A.k.a, the PCE was the final boss battle before Powell steps out, clears his throat, and pretends there was ever a world in which he wasn’t cutting.

(Source: CNBC) 

The funny thing though is that there was nothing in the report that really gave us new information. Goods prices jumped because tariffs are still being a stage-5 clinger, while services barely budged. Income and spending rates, tho, boomed. Translation: Donny Politics dividend stimmies can’t come fast enough. But the one thing that the PCE report gave us was the one thing the Fed cares about: Stability. Translation: A nice, boring 2.8% is Powell’s love language. And the market knows it.

Stocks ramped, Yields cooled. And everyone’s already acting like they have money again. The only person still debating this is that one hawkish Fed president who wakes up every morning praying inflation will misbehave just to keep things interesting. Speaking of which, it’s evident as to how split the FOMC is behind the scenes. Half the room wants to front-run a labor market slowdown. The other half still thinks inflation is hiding in the closet waiting for its coming out party (you know, cause it’s 2025… duh). Neither group is particularly right, but that’s not really the point… they just need to pick a story and stick to it. And come Wednesday, they’ll do exactly that. 

(Source: Tenor)

With that said, anything can happen, especially considering the delayed data makes the whole thing feel even dumber. We’re working off September numbers in December like it’s totally normal. But hey, a shutdown is gonna shut sh*t down, amrite? Regardless, Powell’s going to cut, the market’s going to hand out participation trophies, and we all move on to pretending the next data point matters more than this one. Place your bets accordingly, friends. Until next time… 

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.