Palantir Snags One of NATO’s Fastest Deals… Maybe That 491x Valuation Isn’t So Nuts After All?

There was a time (not long ago) when buying Palantir stock felt like joining a subscription based subreddit rather than making a long term investment. The stock’s value was based on pure speculation, led by a mad scientist CEO with cartoon hair… and not a single analyst would even take the “Lord of the Rings” themed company seriously.

And let’s not forget: this is the same CEO who once sued the U.S. Army, called short sellers “coke addicts,” and in the same breath, praised Elon Musk as “the most important builder of our time.” (Elon later responded by… well, ignoring him entirely.)

Well, let’s fast forward to today. Trump’s back in office stirring up tariff-induced chaos, the S&P 500 is down 7% on the year, and guess who’s quietly up 27%? Palantir.

Yup, the same company that analysts once treated like it had elementary school cooties just signed a deal with NATO. Not a partnership. Not a trial. A full-blown, battlefield-grade rollout of Palantir’s Maven Smart System (MSS)... an AI platform built to help NATO commanders identify targets and plan military operations.

According to NATO’s Communications and Information Agency, MSS will be deployed across Allied Command Operations within the next 30 days. And it was one of the quickest procurement approvals in NATO’s history. That doesn’t happen unless someone’s hair is on fire. Or unless your software is really, really good.

For context, a version of MSS is already being used by the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Space Force (not the Steve Carell one that bombed on Netflix). And back in September, Palantir locked in a $100 million extension with the U.S. military. So while people were debating whether AI would help highschoolers cheat on their tests, Palantir channeled the technology to become the central nervous system of the Pentagon.

In addition to this NATO contract being a huge feather in the cap… it’s also geopolitical statement. William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma even called it a sign that “Europe will likely remain large buyers of U.S. systems.” In other words: Even with all the talk of cutting ties with American defense firms, Europe still wants what Palantir’s selling.

In response, the stock popped almost 10% on the news before the market got bored and drifted lower. But zoom out, and Palantir is still outperforming nearly every major tech stock this year. That includes Apple. That includes Nvidia.

And yet… Palantir is still trading at a sky-high 491x trailing earnings. It’s a steep multiple by any standard and assumes a significant amount of future growth is already baked in. But here’s the thing… based on recent contracts and momentum, that growth might actually be materializing.

In 2024, Palantir brought in $2.87 billion in total revenue… up 29% YoY. U.S. commercial sales jumped 54%. And the company just got added to the S&P 100, alongside corporate royalty like Apple, Microsoft, and Johnson & Johnson. You know… companies that don’t usually have Redditors photoshopping their CEOs as Julius Caesar.

On top of that, several major analysts have started warming up to the story. Stephen Guilfoyle recently raised his price target to $116, citing the NATO deal as a major validation point and suggesting it could drive additional upside for the company. Over at Wedbush, Dan Ives called Palantir one of his top picks for 2025, saying the company is in a “sweet spot” to benefit from a surge in AI-related federal spending across North America and Europe.

That’s a sharp pivot from the “overhyped meme stock” narrative that’s followed this company since its IPO. Even the most jaded bears are quietly admitting this might be more than just Alex Karp in a sweater yelling about the Talmud and national security. With government contracts stacking up and commercial clients like AT&T, PG&E, and Walgreens signing multi-year deals, it’s getting harder to argue that Palantir is all smoke and no fire.

Now, don’t get me wrong… this isn’t risk-free. Trump’s back in office, and he’s already playing budget Jenga with the Pentagon in the name of “efficiency,” which usually means someone’s getting defunded. Europe’s war-spending spree could slow down if the continent slips into a recession. And then there’s the parade of Palantir execs cashing out stock like it’s scratch-off lottery tickets… never a great look when you’re trying to convince the market you’re just getting started. But context matters.

For over a decade, Palantir stayed on the fringe, building serious software while the rest of Silicon Valley chased social apps and cloud ad revenue. Now, with global instability rising and AI moving into government hands, the world may finally be coming around to its vision.

Is Palantir back? Maybe it was never gone. But now, the story is starting to look a lot more real… and the analysts are starting to say it out loud.

PS: Don’t fall for the narrative that nothing’s going up in this Trump tariff firestorm… that’s just noise. While the headlines scream doom and gloom, our Stocks.News Premium members are getting early alerts on stocks that explode 50%... even 100%+ in a single day. Every. Single. Week.

If you're sick of watching these moves from the sidelines, it might be time to get off the bench. With Premium, you’ll get two trade alerts a week, plus access to our Insider Trading Tool that tracks everyone from overpaid CEOs to your favorite Congress members magically buying before the news breaks.

Oh, and unlike Bloomberg, we don’t charge a small fortune to deliver actionable info. Their terminals might look fancy, but do they catch real-time squeeze setups and insider buys before they rip? Yeah… didn’t think so. Go here to become a Stocks.News premium member now.

Stock.News has positions in Apple, Microsoft, and AT&T.