Moderna’s ‘Long Covid’ Delivers a Surprise Q3 Profit and a Booming Guidance

Can we get a health check on RFK Jr.? 

Moderna is out here getting its 2021 on again. The big swingin’ v*x maker beat on the top and bottom lines Friday. We’re talking 38 cents a share vs. the $1.25 loss the Street was expecting, on $1.31B of revenue vs. $885.1M, which, excuse me, how much?

Naturally, it also hiked its guidance. Moderna now expects 2026 revenue to grow 15% to 25%, up from “up to 10%.” Shares were up nearly 10% before the bell, then settled around 3%. Cowards.

The French guy who rode this stonk down 95% (read: CEO Stéphane Bancel) says “the new product and the diversification of geography is what has led to such a strong Q3.” Translation: Covid. That “new product” is its next-gen Covid shot, which won U.S. approval in May 2025 and only got a “small launch” last year because vaccine contracts get locked in during Q1.

As for the actually new stuff, Moderna’s stand-alone flu shot got approved in August, but Bancel says it’ll only get a “limited launch” in the U.S. this year (read: just the tip, just for a second, just to see how it feels… lol). 

The “diversification of geography” (think: anywhere America’s ripped daddy isn’t running the health department) did the heavy lifting. Revenue jumped 29%, mostly on higher sales of the ‘rona boi overseas, with international nearly tripling to $533M while the U.S. sat flat at $780M. Friendly reminder, RFK Jr.’s HHS yanked hundreds of millions in mRNA funding last year, Moderna’s bird flu deal included. *RFK Jr. punching drywall rn*

Oh, and Bancel is also bragging about “the costs that are also lower.” R&D fell 27% to $583M, which sounds good, until you remember R&D is why anyone gives a sh*t about this stock.

You see, its 700%+ run this year is largely thanks to August, when Moderna and Merck basically cured cancer, kind of. A personalized mRNA shot, paired with Merck’s cancer blockbuster Keytruda, “met key goals” in a late-stage melanoma trial (and that’s as much of the nerd talk as I can understand…). But what I can understand… the stonk mooned 177% in a day.

Then last month, part of the data leaked on social media, days before a big European medical conference. The shot cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% (f*ck cancer). Shares fell about 18% that day, which Bancel called a “surprising reaction.” It’s just that investors had priced in “cured cancer” and got “kind of,” so the stonk got its d*ck kicked in. Citi calls the valuation “unjustifiable,” and still has a sell rating and an $80 price target on a stock that closed at $241 on Thursday.

All in all, remember when Moderna was kinda like Uncle Rico, and the pandemic was its years as the All-State high school quarterback? Yeah, still is. Only this year, he actually got one over them mountains. Sup, Citi…

Until next time, friends! 

 

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News holds positions in Moderna as mentioned in the article.