McDonald’s Just Saw Its Worst Sales Since the Pandemic… But There’s Still Gold in Those Arches

There are certain words in life that are never followed by good news. “The IRS called.” “Root canal’s scheduled for Monday.” “Your mother-in-law’s staying the weekend.” And for me? It’s “2020.”

Anytime I hear something being compared to 2020, I brace for impact. Unless you were Moderna or owned stock in Zoom, 2020 was basically like getting kicked in the nuts every morning (at least for half the year). So when I saw headlines saying McDonald’s just posted its worst U.S. sales drop since the height of the 2020 pandemic, I knew we were in for a real value meal of disappointment.

McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales dropped 3.6% in Q1. I get it, that might not sound catastrophic, but it’s the biggest domestic decline since the lockdown hellscape of mid-2020, when restaurants were shuttered and people would pretty much be arrested for leaving their houses. Now it wasn’t a complete shocker, analysts were expecting a dip… but only 1.4%. Instead, Ronald McDonald belly-flopped and missed revenue expectations too, reporting $5.96B instead of the predicted $6.12B.

Earnings per share were slightly better at $2.67, beating by a single penny. But if you’re celebrating that, you’re pretty much the guy cheering for hitting green on a roulette wheel after losing your mortgage. CEO Chris Kempczinski offered the usual buffet of excuses. He blamed bad weather (kinda strange), cautious consumers, and “uncertainty.” Which, in this case, is code for: “Trump’s back and he brought tariffs with him.”

To be fair, a return to trade tensions has put consumers even more on edge. Between inflation, job worries, and the general cost of living, a lot of folks are thinking twice before pulling up to the drive thru. And while McDonald’s saw its sales slide, Taco Bell managed to post a 9% gain in U.S. same-store sales… which only makes the Golden Arches look more out of step.

McDonald’s tried to sweeten the deal with gimmicks like a $5 meal deal and collectible toys tied to the upcoming Minecraft movie. But the early numbers suggest that consumers aren’t biting… at least not yet. Globally, McD’s same-store sales fell 1%. The U.K. was especially weak, but Japan and the Middle East pulled some weight… with international licensed markets (like China and Brazil) clocking in +3.5%.

Still, total revenue slipped 3%, and net income ticked down to $1.87 billion from $1.93 billion. It’s not exactly end-of-days stuff… but it is the kind of dip that gets investors quietly typing “Is the dividend safe?” into their search bars.

So here we are. Another big-name company tossing around comparisons to 2020. And while the fries are still hot and the branding still iconic, the mood around consumer spending has cooled way down.

That said, things could be worse. McDonald’s stock is still up 9% this year, which, in this market, almost feels like a win worth celebrating… even if the Happy Meal numbers aren’t exactly living up to their name.

PS: The headlines are full of panic… inflation’s too high, the Fed’s asleep at the wheel, and Trump never fails to kill any market momentum with more tariffs. On the surface, it looks like the market’s barely breathing.

But underneath all that noise?

We’re seeing some of the fastest stock moves in years… especially in the small-cap space, where low float and high tension can trigger a 100% pop before lunch. Some are up 200% in under 24 hours… and nobody on CNBC is talking about them.

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Stock.News has positions in McDonald’s and Moderna.