Lowe’s Just Reminded Wall Street That Home Depot Isn’t the Economy’s Spokesperson

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… when it comes to figuring out what shape the housing market is in, you don’t need to scroll Zillow or stalk mortgage rates. You just need to check Home Depot’s earnings. It’s basically the VIX for real estate. If people are spending on two-by-fours and patio furniture, it means there’s still hope. If they’re not, well... you better start cutting costs and canceling that kitchen remodel.

And based on what Home Depot told us yesterday, the patient was flatlining. Revenue came in slightly above expectations, sure, but U.S. same-store sales dropped 3.2%, earnings missed by a wide margin, and execs admitted that the average American can’t afford to swing a hammer right now… let alone pay someone else to do it for them. They didn’t raise prices despite the tariff chaos, but they also didn’t raise hopes.

So, naturally, when Lowe’s reported earnings this morning, everyone expected the sequel to be just as bleak. After all, both companies live in the same space, serve the same customer, and sell the same “weekend warrior” tools. But somehow, Lowe’s managed to contradict everything we thought we knew.

Revenue still declined (down 2% year-over-year to $20.93 billion) but it matched estimates perfectly. That alone was enough to steady investor nerves. Even better, earnings per share came in at $2.92, edging past the expected $2.88. Same-store sales dipped 1.7%, but that beat the -2.04% consensus. Not exactly a roaring comeback, but in this market? “Less bad” is the new good.

So what gives? How did Lowe’s avoid the same brick wall that Home Depot slammed into 24 hours earlier? According to CEO Marvin Ellison, it’s about execution… specifically, tech upgrades and creating a more “inviting store environment.” But under the hood, the real story is the company’s steady shift toward professional customers. While DIY demand continues to dry up (because no one’s ripping out a bathroom when rates are still at 7.2%), Lowe’s Pro segment and e-commerce channels actually posted mid-single-digit growth. That’s meaningful. It suggests Lowe’s isn’t waiting around for homeowners to come back… it’s actively shifting the customer base to folks who have budgets: landlords, contractors, homebuilders.

To drive that point home, Lowe’s spent $1.3 billion in April to acquire Artisan Design Group, a company that installs flooring, cabinets, and countertops for big multifamily operators and builders. It’s smart. If the average consumer isn’t spending, go straight to someone who owns 300 rental units and has to spend. That’s what separates the two companies right now. Home Depot is still playing defense, while Lowe’s is quietly playing offense.

Now, it’s not like Lowe’s is immune to the two T words (Trump and tariffs). About 20% of its products are sourced from China, and with tariff rates swinging between 145% and 30%, costs are still a major wild card. Ellison says the company is working to diversify its supply chain, but that’s a slow burn, not a quick fix.

Even so, this earnings season isn’t about who’s thriving… it’s about who’s surviving with a plan. And somehow, Lowe’s just pulled off a quarter that defied the narrative I wrote about yesterday.

PS: It’s a mess out there.

One day the market’s ripping, the next day it’s Black Monday all over again. Recent earning’s reports have been a total coin flip. One stock beats and explodes 30%… the next misses by a penny and gets sent to the Shadow Realm. And through it all, everyone’s begging for Jerome Powell to finally cave and cut rates.

But underneath all the panic headlines (“Inflation too sticky!” “Recession imminent!” “Tariffs round 4 incoming!”) something wild is happening…

We’re seeing violent price action. Especially in the small-cap space, where low floats and high anxiety are creating the perfect recipe for 100%+ pops before lunchtime. Some of these names are moving 200%+ in under 24 hours… and to our knowledge, NO ONE else is covering them.

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Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.