Lowe’s Clears Q4 Hurdle… But Trips on 2026 Outlook as Housing Turnover Stays Frozen

Lowe’s turned in a solid fourth quarter, topping Wall Street’s expectations even as the housing market continues to move at a measured pace.

The retailer reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.98 on revenue of $20.58 billion, ahead of analysts’ forecasts of $1.94 per share on $20.34 billion, according to LSEG. Comparable sales rose 1.3%, outpacing expectations for a 0.2% gain. Revenue increased from $18.55 billion a year earlier.

Still, management made clear that the operating environment hasn’t changed much.

During an interview, CEO Marvin Ellison said the company is “still dealing with a housing market that does not have a lot of tailwind.” Elevated mortgage rates and lingering economic uncertainty have kept many homeowners in place, reluctant to trade out of low fixed-rate loans. That has limited turnover, which traditionally fuels renovation activity.

“When you put your house on the market, you fix it up,” Ellison said, pointing to routine projects such as painting, fencing and yard improvements. With fewer homes changing hands, that cycle has slowed.

For the fiscal year ahead, Lowe’s expects total sales between $92 billion and $94 billion, or roughly 7% to 9% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are projected between $12.25 and $12.75. Comparable sales are expected to be flat to up 2%.

That earnings outlook fell short of analysts’ $12.95 consensus, and shares declined more than 4% in afternoon trading.

Ellison described the forecast as “appropriately conservative,” citing uncertainty around home sales and tariff policy. Roughly 40% of Lowe’s merchandise is imported, though the company says it has strengthened its approach to managing duties and sourcing.

Operationally, Lowe’s continues to emphasize professional contractors, digital improvements and installation services. Growth during the quarter was supported by pro-related categories such as plumbing supplies and millwork, along with steady demand for paint and home services.

Rival Home Depot delivered a similar message this week, posting a quarterly beat while maintaining cautious full-year guidance.

For now, Lowe’s is executing against its plan and aiming to gain share in a market that remains steady but subdued. The key variable is whether housing transactions or home-equity borrowing pick up, which could bring more consistent demand back into the remodeling cycle.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.