Ken Griffin’s Real Estate Hookup Surges While Playing Hard to Get After Buyout Offer…

Douglas Elliman is riding a sugar high off merger rumors, with its stock spiking as much as 30% after Bloomberg reported that Anywhere Real Estate tossed a buyout offer on the table. The punchline is that the deal would value Elliman at over $4 a share… a.k.a. Nearly double its opening price before the news hit. Sounds great, right? Too bad Elliman isn’t biting. 

(Source: Giphy) 

In short, despite the market foaming at the mouth and retail traders FOMOing like it’s 2021 again, sources say Douglas Elliman isn’t likely to accept the offer at its current level. Which raises the obvious question: what the hell is this company holding out for? 

Well, for starters, Douglas Elliman is a luxury real estate brokerage that’s been around long enough to have weathered every real estate cycle and scandal you can imagine. They made headlines for handling some of the most absurdly high-end deals in the U.S., like Ken Griffin’s record-breaking $238 million Manhattan penthouse. So yes, they’ve got real brand equity in the world of luxurious concrete and glass. However, the last few years have been less than kind. Since being spun out as a standalone company in 2021, their market cap has shriveled from a peak of $900 million to around $190 million before the recent jump. A 77% rally this year and a 143% 12-month gain sound impressive… until you realize they’re still crawling out of a crater.

(Source: Stocktwits) 

Meaning, Anywhere’s offer isn’t just generous… it’s arguably delusional. They’re valuing Elliman at over $4 per share, when the thing was trading at $2.11 before the news. Now with that said, the bid doesn’t account for the company’s property management business, which Anywhere reportedly wants to amputate like a diseased limb. That division isn’t sexy, but it’s recurring revenue… the kind that doesn’t disappear just because high-end buyers are suddenly allergic to 7% mortgage rates. Meaning, selling it off might streamline the business, but it also guts a non-trivial income stream. 

But, but, but… there’s also the reputational baggage. Elliman is still untangling itself from the PR fireball that was the Alexander brothers scandal. For those just catching up here, this was a 60-minute-like special with former star agents turned federal defendants facing sex trafficking charges. Noice, and not exactly a footnote you want in your S-1. Add in the internal mess left by former CEO Howard Lorber… who just so happened to go full Bill Clinton and admitted to “intimate relationships” with brokers during an internal probe… and it’s clear that Elliman isn’t just selling luxury homes, they’re moonlighting as liability risks. 

(Source: Tenor) 

To be fair, new CEO Michael Liebowitz is trying to clean house, cut costs, and pivot the company toward development marketing. But that’s not a quick turnaround, and the board might believe there’s more upside ahead if they just hang on a little longer. Anywhere, for its part, would love to add Elliman’s brand cachet and geographic footprint to its portfolio… especially in luxury-drenched markets like New York and Miami. 

And yet, while the market liked the idea enough to give Anywhere a modest bump, it wasn’t enough to start pricing in any done deals. So that’s where we are, Douglas Elliman holding out for a better deal… or another bidder. Meanwhile, Anywhere weighs whether to sweeten the pot or walk. And the rest of us get to watch a company with a $260 million market cap act like it’s sitting on a gold mine, not a pile of lawsuits and real estate brochures. Someone is bluffing… and only time will tell which one will blink first. Until next time, friends…

Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.