“I want you to put the word out that we’re back up.”
In a strange turn of events that are probably, definitely, completely unrelated (but I’m gonna pretend they’re not)… the inflation report just came in smooth enough for the Fed to finally start sharpening the scissors for rate cuts. Live look at every trader when the numbers hit:
You asked for the score? Well, here you go: July CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year… just under the 2.8% economists expected. On paper, that’s not exactly “call your mom and tell her you paid off her house” material. But in the secret language of the Fed, that’s basically “welcome to the rate cut club.” Even Core CPI, which strips out food and energy (aka the stuff we actually buy), clocked in at 3.1%... a hair above forecasts, but not scary enough to derail the rate-cut narrative.
Naturally, the CME FedWatch tool (Wall Street’s version of DraftKings, except the bets are on Jerome Powell’s next move instead of the Browns missing the playoffs) went nuts:
- 91.8% for a September cut (up from 85.9%)
- 66.3% for an October cut (up from 55.1%)
- 56.7% for a December cut (up from 45%)
No, this is not a cruel joke. That’s three potential cuts before the ball drops in Times Square… and yes, that ball will also probably be financed at a lower interest rate. And then… there’s the other part… the one where we might actually have to send “The Greatest President in the history of our country” (his words, not mine) a thank-you card. You see, just a few hours before the CPI numbers dropped, Donald J. Trump fired off a Truth Social post that was about as subtle as Tony Soprano calling in a “favor”:
“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell must NOW lower the rate… I am considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed because of the horrible, and grossly incompetent, job he has done managing the construction of the Fed Buildings… Three Billion Dollars for a job that should have been a $50 Million Dollar fix up. Not good!” Here’s what he really wanted to say: “Nice central bank you got there, Jerome. Be a shame if… something happened to it.” (I guess that’s all it took for Jerome to give in).
And honestly? I get it. I wouldn’t want to lose my taxpayer-funded infinity pools or my bowling alley either (allegedly… but tell me you can’t picture Powell in bowling shoes).
And yet… poof… the very next day, inflation magically comes in soft enough to justify rate cuts. Total coincidence. But hey, I’m not here to start a conspiracy theory… at least not this week.
Whether it’s the data, the lawsuit threat, or Powell just wanting to keep splashing around in his new Fed HQ waterpark a little longer, the market’s betting the Fed goes full BRRR this fall. And no matter how we got here… Who gives a flip? Three cuts are on the table, and that’s good enough for me.
So yeah… put the word out. We are in fact, back up.
At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.
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