Is Ford's Future Doomed? Here's Why Bernstein Just Slashed it's Price Target on Shares by 26%...

I honestly can’t believe I’m sitting here, writing about Ford getting downgraded—again. But alas, here we are. This time, it’s courtesy of Bernstein, with their senior analyst Daniel Roeska handing out downgrades like California handing out EV’s nobody asked for. 

In short, Ford recently dropped their third quarter earnings, and let’s just say their reaction was like mine when I got friggin ‘socks for Christmas. Technically, it’s a present, but no one’s excited about it. They hit profit expectations, sure, but their lowered guidance for the rest of the year? It was piss poor, sitting at the lowest expected level of $10 billion. This alone, sparked a downgrade from Bernstein, while Roeska jumped to Yahoo Finance to kindly remind everyone that Ford’s about to get its lunch money stolen by Stellantis in 2025.

(Source: Yahoo Finance) 

Now, I know what you’re thinking, “WTF… Stellantis??”. Yes, and hold my beer coffee, because here’s why: According to Bernstein, Stellantis is about to go full Walmart Black Friday with their pricing, slashing everything in sight. Roeska’s main point is that Ford’s flagship F-150 is about to get bodied by Ram’s discount blitz, and Ford doesn’t exactly have a lot of moves left on the chessboard to compete with the price gouge. “They’ll have to sit there and take it,” says Roeska, probably while sipping his coffee and relishing in the fact he single handedly ignited a near 2% drop in Ford shares on Thursday. 

(Source: Investing.com) 

Additionally, Roeska didn't just downgrade Ford from its “Outperform” rating to “Market Perform”, but they took a weed whacker to its price target, cutting it from $15 to $11. That’s a 26% drop, in case you didn’t math that. Why? Well, because Ford’s staring down the barrel of some serious pricing and free cash flow  headwinds in early 2025. In other words, the competition is about to throw a pricing party, and Ford simply won’t be able to bear it.

Plus, add in some fantastic consumer sentiment (read: people are feeling broke), and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Bernstein’s basically saying Ford’s gonna have to throw big discounts at customers just to stop them from jumping ship to Ram or Chevy. Spoiler alert: That’s not great for earnings or free cash flow. It’s like giving away free cocktails just to keep people at your party, but you’re hemorrhaging money and running out alcohol. 

(Source: Giphy) 

What’s more, is that Ford Blue, the old-school combustion-engine side of the business is now becoming a problem child. Bernstein analysts are looking at this division like the teammate who’s been nursing the same “pulled hamstring” excuse for the last two seasons - a.k.a. It’s not pulling its weight. They’re calling for a big-time cost restructuring ASAP, saying Ford needs to get its act together or risk getting left in the dust by the competition. If they don’t, it’s going to be a long, embarrassing grind until at least 2026.

(Source: Ford Authority) 

So yeah, clearly analysts aren’t super horned up on Ford at the moment, especially when you get on the topic of EVs (If you were hoping for some good news here, bless your heart, but you’re out of luck). Bernstein is pretty much throwing the Hatorade at Ford’s Model e division as they are predicting continued losses through 2025 and 2026, though they did throw Ford a bone by acknowledging they’ve cut some costs. So I guess that’s progress? Ehh, not fast enough progress. 

For instance, remember that F-150 Lightning Ford was so excited about? Well, they’ve hit the brakes on production for seven weeks to deal with mountains of unsold inventory. Fun fact: Ford’s sitting on 112 days of sales in dealer lots, which is about 30 days higher than the industry average. Meaning, Bernstein is now practically begging Ford to come up with an entirely new EV platform by early 2025, or it’s game over. 

(Source: Giphy) 

On the other hand, despite all the negative sentiment from Bernstein, Roeska did leave a tiny sliver of hope, but it’s the kind of hope that feels more like a “maybe, if the stars align” situation.He says Ford could turn things around in the second half of 2025, but only if management pulls a Hail Mary and gets its house in order. Which is kind of super vague, but that’s overpaid Wall Street analyst for ya. 

(Source: Barrons) 

The main thing is that Ford needs to completely overhaul their strategy, fix their bloated inventory, and fend off aggressive competitors slashing prices to the bone. Easy, right? Well, only time will tell, but the main takeaway here is that if you’re betting on Ford, I’d suggest packing a lunch and bringing a book, because this turnaround is going to take a while—if it ever happens. 

In the meantime, do what you will with this information as Ford is still down -9.79% YTD - and as always, stay safe and stay frosty, friends! Until next time…

P.S. Ladies and Gentlemen… we got ‘em! Our screeners are flashing a major alert on one little known stock that’s about to absolutely POP come market open on Monday. And get this? With short-interest screaming massive short positions from institutions, this catalyst could send prices to the friggin ‘moon for those who are prepared. Meaning, click here immediately to make sure you get the details first thing on Monday, before things get real AF. Don’t say I didn’t warn ya! 

Stocks.News holds positions in Ford as mentioned in the article.