Investors Are Left Swiping for Answers as Bumble’s Stock Crashes 36%

Ever feel like you’ve been catfished? You swipe right on a promising tech stock with a CEO who seems like the next Steve Jobs, only to discover it’s Caroline Ellison in disguise. 

Well, that’s exactly how Bumble investors are feeling right now. The women-focused dating app just saw its stock plummet 36% to a fresh record low after slashing its annual sales forecast and basically saying, “Who needs money?” by hitting the brakes on monetization efforts. Talk about a bad first date.

Let’s rewind a bit. Bumble burst onto the Nasdaq scene in 2021 with a blockbuster IPO, valued at a record breaking $14 billion. Fast forward to today, and the company is now barely holding onto a $1 billion market cap. It’s like watching your high school crush go from cheerleading captain to a greeter at the local Walmart.

The recent cliff jump came after Bumble cut its full-year revenue growth forecast to a measly 1-2%, down from the previously optimistic 8-11%. That’s not even enough to keep up with inflation. Their second-quarter revenue also missed the mark, coming in at $268.6 million versus the expected $273 million. Reminds me of when my cousin Mike promised his girlfriend a fancy dinner downtown but ended up at the McDonald’s on skid row.

At this point, Bumble is used to bad news. Not only did they have to lay off 370 employees—about 30% of their workforce—back in March, but even the CEO admitted it’s time to rethink their women-first messaging strategy which is what the entire company was built on.

Surprisingly, the suits in New York City are still bullish on Bumble. Despite the bad news, 23 brokerages have rated the stock a “buy,” with a forecasted 55% upside in the next 12 months.

Let’s talk numbers. Bumble’s average revenue per paying user dropped to $21.37 from $23.23 a year earlier. Revenue from the app is expected to grow only 1.5-2.5%, down from the initial 9-11%. That’s not even enough to keep up with inflation. Meanwhile, Bumble’s stock price-to-earnings ratio is an embarrassing 7.91, significantly lower than rival Match Group’s 15.15. In the dating app world, Bumble is that guy in a wrinkled shirt and mismatched socks trying to compete with Mr. GQ.

Bumble’s future isn’t all bleak. The company plans to introduce new features like AI-assisted photo pickers and more options for making “opening moves.” But as Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell pointed out, “We aren’t sure how long this new strategy will take to play out, which could face even more headwinds if consumer spending slows.” In other words, Bumble’s got a lot of swiping left to do before it finds its perfect match.

Stock.News has positions in McDonald’s.