I Warned You That Solar Stocks Would Get Smoked Like a Cheap Cigar… I Hope You Listened

The second it became clear Trump was heading back to the White House, I had one immediate thought: maybe interest rates will finally go lower so I can refinance my house green energy stocks are about to get curb-stomped.

I mean, we’ve seen this movie before. Back in 2020, when Biden took over, everyone and their eco-friendly cousin jumped into solar stocks. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) rocketed 450% in less than a year. Why? Because Biden was handing out green energy subsidies to anyone wearing a tree hugger shirt.

But now? Not so much. The TAN is down 18% in the last six months, and if that wasn’t enough of a reality check, Sunnova just got absolutely obliterated this morning. Shares are down 65%, and the company basically waved the white flag, saying there’s "substantial doubt" it can stay in business.

The economic conditions have made it nearly impossible for solar companies to stay in the sun. High interest rates have made it significantly more expensive for consumers to finance home solar installations, killing demand. At the same time, states have been rolling back incentives, which were once a key driver of adoption. The company has been desperately cutting costs, firing 15% of its workforce in an attempt to conserve cash. But the real death blow may come from Washington, where Trump and Congress are poised to gut the tax credits Sunnova was banking on for survival.

CEO John Berger said it best: “The overall environment is terrible.” AKA: we’re screwed.

Back in its glory days in 2020, Sunnova was worth $4.5 billion. Now? It’s a glorified penny stock at $73 million market cap. Shares that once traded for $50 are now scraping the bottom of the barrel at 55 cents. The company just arranged a $185 million term loan at 15% interest… which sounds less like a business loan and more like a payday loan scam.

And to make matters worse, analysts are already lowering their 2025 solar installation forecasts after a 20% drop in 2024, which means this sector isn’t bouncing back anytime soon.

Look, I’m not saying renewable energy is dead forever… but the easy money era? That’s done. When rates were low and President Biden was practically begging you to install solar panels, these companies could make some decent money. Now? Not so much. If Trump follows through with rolling back green energy incentives, expect more solar stocks to get thrown into the wood chipper.

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Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.