How Walmart Quietly Pulled Off Its Best Stock Year Since 1999

Somewhere in Bentonville, Arkansas, Sam Walton’s heirs are probably lounging in Walmart lawn chairs, sipping Great Value lemonade, and channeling their inner Idris Elba from The Wire: “I want you to put the word out there… we back up.” And oh boy, are they ever. 

Walmart’s stock is partying like it’s 1999 (literally), and this year, it’s set to post its best gains in over two decades. With a stock price up nearly 60% in 2024, Walmart is leaving its rivals in aisle 2 (and probably giving Amazon and Target execs some heartburn).

Let’s unpack the receipts. In Q3 alone, Walmart impressed with a 6.6% revenue increase, hitting $169.6 billion and smashing Wall Street’s expectations of $165.7 billion. Same-store sales? Up 5.3%, easily outpacing the 3.9% forecast. Online sales? A 22% jump compared to last year. 

And let’s not forget their earnings per share (EPS): adjusted EPS hit $0.58, up 13.7% year-over-year and beating analyst predictions of $0.53.In a year where rivals are scraping for scraps (Target’s 9% stock gain looks downright sad in comparison).

Walmart’s signature move has always been its “everyday low prices”... But the company isn’t just leaning on great value pasta and discounted detergent. Global eCommerce sales surged 27%, thanks to initiatives like store pickup and delivery (because who actually wants to walk through 40 aisles for paper towels?). Then there’s Walmart Connect, their advertising arm, which grew 26% in the U.S., proving they can make money on both the stuff they sell and the ads for it (that’s what you call a two-for-one special).

Even CFO John Rainey couldn’t help but smile during a recent earnings call, noting that over 50% of Walmart’s operating income growth came from high-margin ventures like advertising and memberships. And we all know there’s nothing that makes executives happier than subscription revenue.

With the holiday shopping season upon us, Walmart’s poised to suck in even more cash. U.S. consumers are expected to spend up to $989 billion over Thanksgiving and Christmas, according to the National Retail Federation. But even with all the good news, growth is expected to be slower than previous years. No problem for Walmart, though. As CEO Doug McMillon put it, “Our teams are executing and delighting customers with the value and convenience they expect.” (Do you think he’s ever even seen one of his greeters?).

As for what’s next? Well, with Walmart’s stock flying high and their competitors crying in the shower, maybe they’ll start charging us for parking in their lot. At this rate, we’d probably pay it (and still call it a deal).

P.S. Do you hear that sound? If you listen closely, it’s the sound of a stock getting probed with massive short interest, and a sky-high borrow fee that would make your 8% mortgage look like a friggin’ happy meal. Meaning, once this catalyst lights a fire under this little known stock, we could potentially see some fireworks POP… and when I say pop… I mean triple-digit to the moon pop. Curious to know what the ticker is? Click here for the details.

Stock.News has positions in Amazon.