Google’s New AI Just Declared War on Your Local Meteorologist

Technology has handed us some truly ridiculous miracles. We’ve got self-driving cars, planes that hurtle through the sky at 500 mph, and phones that predict your pizza cravings before your stomach does. But for all that progress, the weather channel? Still about as reliable as asking your dog. Rain or shine? Flip a coin. If Sparky wags his tail, grab an umbrella. If he growls, well, enjoy your accidental shower.

But wait… Google has entered the chat. Their new AI toy, GenCast, promises to do what decades of meteorology degrees and green screens couldn’t: make a weather forecast that isn’t complete garbage. Think of it as the ChatGPT of weather predictions, except instead of helping kids cheat on math exams, it’s predicting storms. And it’s actually good at it. (Somewhere, a local weatherman just spilled his coffee in terror.)

GenCast, courtesy of Google’s DeepMind, can accurately predict 15 days into the future. That’s five more days than the previous limit, which, let’s be honest, wasn’t exactly nailing it either. (But hey, at least local weather memes are still thriving.)

How good is it? Tests showed that GenCast outperformed the world’s best weather models 97.2% of the time. Yes, nearly every time. Meanwhile, your trusty weather app is out here throwing darts blindfolded. (“50% chance of rain” = we have absolutely no clue, but hedge your bets, Becky.)

Traditional forecasting involves room-sized supercomputers churning through terabytes of data for hours. (Picture NASA’s Mission Control, but everyone’s arguing about humidity.) GenCast? It’s like a minimalist ninja—generating 15-day forecasts in minutes using a leaner, smarter AI model. It learned by analyzing 40 years of atmospheric data (1979–2018) and testing it against 2019 conditions, where it crushed predictions for storm paths and wind speeds.

Think of it like a poker player who’s memorized every hand ever played. This AI isn’t just playing the odds; it’s rewriting them. (GenCast’s poker face? Unbeatable.)

Extreme weather events, like hurricanes, are where GenCast shines. It’s able to accurately predict storm paths faster and better than existing methods. However, it still struggles a bit with intensity predictions (like knowing if the next hurricane will be a category 1 or 5). DeepMind’s researchers say they’re working on it, so stay tuned.

A 2019 study suggested extending reliable forecasts by just five days could bring enormous socioeconomic benefits. Imagine governments, businesses, and even regular folks planning better for storms, droughts, or snow days. (No more panic-buying milk and bread unnecessarily.)

Even the pros are impressed. Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus at MIT, called this development “a big deal,” adding that GenCast could complement traditional methods for even greater accuracy. Instead of keeping GenCast locked in their corporate vault (though you know they thought about it), Google plans to make its predictions and code public. Scientists, weather nerds, and yes, Jim from your HOA, can now access it (at the low price of $5,000 a month I’m sure).

While this breakthrough hasn’t moved Alphabet’s stock (yet), it positions Google as a leader in AI-powered weather forecasting. As the model improves and its applications expand, you might want to keep an eye on those shares. After all, this could be the tech equivalent of sunny skies for their bottom line.

Stock.News has positions in Alphabet.

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