Forget Powell’s Rate Decision… This Fed Chart Will Decide Whether Stocks Rip or Slip This Summer

If Jerome Powell had a nickel for every time Trump called him a “numbskull” on Truth Social, he’d have… well, enough to refinance the national debt and maybe buy TikTok just to shut it down out of spite. But even with all the ALL-CAPS late night “Truth’s” and declarations like “TOO LATE POWELL!!!” flooding the timeline, the Fed chair is doing what he does best: ignoring the insults, staring down a wall of economic data, and prepping for the one thing that actually moves markets… the infamous dot plot.

Unfortunately for all of us, this week’s Fed meeting is all about that sexy little chart only economists and bond traders pretend to understand: the dot plot. That’s the Fed’s version of a group text, where every official throws in their two cents on where interest rates should go… and nobody agrees on anything, but it’s color-coded so we pretend it makes sense.

Trump’s been begging for a full-point cut like my sister used to ask for a pony, and Powell’s out here saying, “We’ll see how the data looks, Don.” You know, being all measured and responsible while juggling 2.5% core PCE, a 4.2% unemployment rate, and a President threatening to “force something” if he doesn’t get his way. (He legally can’t force anything… unless we start measuring inflation in mean tweets per minute).

Now, about those bond markets… specifically, the long end of the curve, where investors are vanishing like free snacks at a shareholder meeting. Thirty-year yields are climbing toward 5% because no one wants to be the bagholder when Uncle Sam’s tab keeps growing. Between Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” adding $2.4 trillion to the deficit and a fresh round of tariffs threatening to heat up prices, long-duration debt is starting to look more like a dare than an investment.

So while consumer prices are cooling (core CPI rose just 2.8% in May) the threat of tariff-sparked inflation still lingers. And Powell knows it. He might not tweet about it with GIFs, but you can bet it’ll show up in his post-meeting press conference in the form of phrases like “data-dependent” and “cautious patience.”

You might be thinking, “Why should I care? Powell usually just steps up to the mic, stares into the void, and says a bunch of nothing.” Fair. But this week’s different. Wall Street’s already priced in two rate cuts this year (probably September and December) banking on the idea that the job market finally takes a breather and inflation doesn’t get jolted by another round of tariffs.

But the market is walking on eggshells. The last dot plot showed two cuts. If the Fed sticks to that script, no harm, no foul. But if they dial it back? Expect some uneasiness. Of course, if they surprise with more cuts? Stocks could rip like we’ve never seen (but I think a blue moon is more likely to happen this week than that).

And of course, there’s another wildcard: the Middle East. Israel and Iran are still trading airstrikes, and yet markets are acting like nothing’s happening. Oil’s up, VIX is up… but the S&P 500 is still swaggering around like it’s untouchable. Unless geopolitical chaos actually disrupts energy flows, Wall Street seems content ignoring literal war for now.

So don’t get it twisted no matter what some of the “analysts” say. This week isn’t about Powell talking. It’s about a bunch of tiny dots quietly crushing or confirming Wall Street’s hopes. One change, and traders go from “we’re back, baby” to “we might be cooked.”

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News doesn’t hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.