Fintech’s Former King Is Waking Up… And Wall Street’s Not Paying Attention (Yet)

Let’s get one thing out of the way… PayPal is not going back to $309 a share anytime soon. That ship sailed back in 2021 when we were panic-buying NFTs and getting outbid over six figures in cash while looking for a home (I can’t be the only one). But even after a 79% fall from grace, PayPal might finally be turning into the fintech beast it always promised to be.

And yes, I know, we’ve heard this story before. “Venmo’s gonna change everything!”... a phrase that's been repeated more than that one word you said out of anger that your toddler won’t stop repeating. But for once, there’s actual traction… and money. Like, real dollars.

Which brings me to Venmo, the long-underachieving middle child of the PayPal family. For years, Venmo has been wildly popular with the “just Venmo me for the nachos” crowd, but totally allergic to making actual money. I like to compare it to a kid with a Harvard degree who refuses to move out of your basement because “music is their real passion.” But something changed this quarter.

Venmo’s revenue grew 20% year over year… that’s double the pace of its payment volume growth. Meaning: it’s finally monetizing like a real business. And no, not from P2P transfers (those are still free). Venmo’s growth is coming from stuff people actually use: online checkout, debit cards, and those glorious instant transfers when you need your rent money five minutes ago.

PayPal added 2 million new debit card users in the quarter. Venmo debit card monthly active users are up 40%, and payment volume on those cards jumped over 60%. Even Pay with Venmo transaction volume is up 50%. It’s like watching that quiet kid from high school suddenly show up at the 10-year reunion driving a Lamborghini and mentioning they founded a unicorn.

Let’s give some flowers to CEO Alex Chriss. The guy parachuted in from Intuit, quietly fired half the C-suite, and has been putting the business through fintech boot camp ever since. Five straight quarters of profitability growth. A new ad platform. “Fastlane” checkout. A renewed focus on branded experiences and ecosystem depth. He even dropped a little financial fanfic during investor day, saying PayPal wants to grow earnings at 20%+ annually. I understand it’s bold, but I’d argue it’s not delusional when you’re tossing off $6B+ in free cash flow and buying back shares every chance you get.

Yes, revenue growth is still slow (up just 1% this quarter), but the profit engine is humming. And with 436 million active accounts across 200 countries, PayPal isn’t some penny stock trying to prove it exists… it’s actually operating like a grown up (metaphorically speaking).

Look, this isn’t a comeback story like Jordan in the 90s. I mean the stock is still down 79% from all time highs. But at 13x forward earnings, PayPal looks cheap. Like, absurdly cheap. And if Chriss & Co. can keep scaling Venmo, expand Fastlane, and double down on checkout and debit monetization, this stock might not need to hit $309 again to deliver serious upside.

I’m not saying it’s back. But I am saying… it finally looks like PayPal has read the assignment. And for the first time in a long time, the math (and the momentum) might be working in its favor.

PS: The headlines are full of panic… inflation’s too high, the Fed’s asleep at the wheel, and Trump never fails to kill any market momentum with more tariffs. On the surface, it looks like the market’s barely breathing.

But underneath all that noise?

We’re seeing some of the fastest stock moves in years… especially in the small-cap space, where low float and high tension can trigger a 100% pop before lunch. Some are up 200% in under 24 hours… and nobody on CNBC is talking about them.

Except us.

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Stock.News does not have positions in companies mentioned.