Ferrari’s “Play-It-Safe” Plan Backfires BIGLY… Prancing Horse Suffers Worst Beating in 9 Years

Ferrari execs before the Capital Markets Day: “Let’s underpromise, stay conservative, and remind everyone we still hand-build perfection.”

Ferrari execs after the Capital Markets Day: “This is the worst! The absolute worst!”

Ferrari (NYSE: RACE) is on track for (checks chart), its worst day since teenagers everywhere were freezing in place to Rae Sremmurd’s “Black Beatles.” Shares fell 16% after management delivered a forecast that screamed “don’t get mad,” and followed it up by ghosting half its EV plans.

For starters, the Maranello crew rolled out fresh guidance for 2024 and 2030. Net revenue this year is now expected to “at least” hit $7.6 billion, barely above the $7.4 billion figure they’d already promised. For 2030, Ferrari is targeting $9.7 billion in sales and $3.9 billion in EBITDA.

(Source: Marketwatch)

If you’re thinking, “That sounds fine?”... well, Wall Street disagreed. RBC Capital Markets’ Tom Narayan called the 6% CAGR implied by the new targets “a downshift from the 10% growth Ferrari bragged about in 2022.” Citi was even more pissed off: the outlook “falls below our lower-growth case.” Translation: Ferrari went from promising an Autobahn to announcing a school zone.

By the end of the session, shares in Milan were down 13%, and U.S.-listed shares fell over 12%. Analysts called it “a face-plant in slow motion.” Of course, the real problem was something my mom told me was impossible… being too careful. Ferrari told investors the cautious guidance was “discipline.” Suits heard, “if it wasn’t for grifters on Instagram, we would go bankrupt.”

At the same event, Ferrari unveiled the chassis and powertrain for its first-ever EV, the Elettrica, set to hit driveways in late 2026. Then, in true Ferrari fashion, they floored it… straight into reverse. Management quietly trimmed its 2030 EV target from 40% of sales to just 20%, keeping the rest split between hybrids and V12s that still sound like thunder. The official excuse was “client-centricity,” which is Italian for “our customers would rather fill up at Shell than fight for a charger behind a Dunkin Donuts.” Which if I’m being honest, “same.”

To be fair, Ferrari isn’t the only one getting cold feet about the electric future. Volvo quietly walked back its all-EV pledge, Mercedes keeps “reassessing” timelines, and even Elon’s delivery forecasts are now filed under fiction. Still, for a brand that sells the thrill of breaking rules, this level of caution landed somewhere between disappointing and dad-rock.

On the plus side, Ferrari’s active client base is up 20% since 2022 to 90,000. It plans to launch an average of four new cars per year through 2030. And if you’re a sunny side up kinda person, JPMorgan even defended the company, saying CEO Benedetto Vigna’s leadership has “turbocharged innovation.” (Just maybe not the stock price).

Now, things haven’t looked this rough for Ferrari since 2016… but let’s be clear, they’re not exactly flirting with Spirit Airlines in bankruptcy court. The long-term story still checks out: elite brand, ridiculous demand, limited supply. But today showed that even the prancing horse can eat dirt once in a while. And as we’ve seen multiple times over this year, if there’s one thing markets hate more than tarrifs high interest rates, it’s a company playing it safe.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Meta as mentioned in the article.