Did UBS Just Call Elon's Bluff and Tank Tesla 13%? (My Hot Take)

Last week, I threw out the idea that Tesla dipping under $200 could be a very real thing in the near future. Just something to keep on the radar. But I’ll be honest… I didn’t think we’d be staring it down this soon. And yet, here we are. Tesla is getting mauled like Conor McGregor in the Khabib fight, after UBS decided to lower its price target.

To be fair, UBS didn’t start the fire… it just poured gas on an already raging dumpster inferno. The past few weeks have been a slow-motion train wreck for Tesla investors. The stock is down 51% from its December peak, erasing every bit of its post-election rally. Monday’s drop alone shaved $18 billion off Elon Musk’s net worth (though don’t worry, he’s still richer than anyone else). And while the broader market isn’t exactly thriving, Tesla’s crash is happening on a whole different level.

Like I said, UBS led the charge, cutting its price target from $259 to $225 after lowering its Q1 delivery forecast from 437,000 to 367,000, citing weaker demand for the Model 3 and Model Y. That’s a 26% quarter-over-quarter decline, which if it happens, would mean Tesla is in serious trouble. Making matters worse, delivery times for Tesla’s most popular models are suspiciously short… like 4'11" at 18 years old short.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Tesla’s China shipments fell 49% year-over-year in February, hitting their lowest level in nearly three years. BYD and other Chinese automakers are feasting on Tesla’s market share, and for once, even Musk’s Twitter antics can’t distract from the reality.

Then there’s the other elephant in the room… Musk’s side gig as a government bureaucrat. Tesla investors have been wondering where their CEO has been while the stock craters, and the answer is… Washington, D.C. Instead of sleeping on the floor of Tesla factories, he’s been sleeping in his government office while leading the Department of Government Efficiency (I still can’t believe this is real).

Retail investors are not happy. A recent poll showed that 60% of respondents think Musk’s government gig is actively hurting Tesla. Analysts agree. CFRA’s Garrett Nelson suggested that Tesla needs to promote someone internally to keep the company from completely losing its way. But since Musk is both Tesla’s biggest asset and its biggest liability… that would probably only make it go lower. Analysts estimate that $150 to $200 of Tesla’s stock price is purely tied to Musk himself… so if he steps back, the stock could tank even further.

Still, Tesla’s biggest bulls refuse to give up. Dan Ives at Wedbush is doubling down with a $550 price target, calling this a “gut check moment” for Tesla investors (like we talked about yesterday). Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is equally bullish, arguing that Tesla is evolving into an AI and robotics powerhouse, which is a convenient way to ignore that car sales are falling off Mt. Everest. But the market just proved it has zero faith in robotaxis. If investors truly believed that autonomous driving was right around the corner, why did a single analyst downgrade wipe out 10%+ of Tesla’s value? Clearly, Wall Street is calling Elon’s bluff.

So, is Tesla about to break below $200? At this point, it’s looking like a matter of when, not if. The stock is already down 35% in the last month, and there’s no obvious catalyst to stop the bleeding. Demand is cratering, deliveries are shrinking, Musk is distracted, and Tesla’s once-invincible brand is starting to crack.

Maybe, just maybe, Tesla’s AI and robotics play will turn it back into a trillion-dollar beast. And if you believe that, this could be the dip of a lifetime. I won’t lie… I kind of see the vision, even if it feels a little cope-y. If there’s even a shred of truth to the idea that Tesla’s robotaxis could pull in $30K per vehicle in revenue, then maybe those wild multi-trillion-dollar market cap predictions aren’t so far-fetched. Getting in at these levels could be legendary. That said, there’s something to be said for the old adage: never bet against Elon... but maybe don’t bet on him either.

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Stock.News has positions in Tesla.