Crypto.com Just Saul Goodman’d Its Way Into 16 States Where Sports Betting’s Banned

“You don’t need to break the law if you can bend it.” – Saul Goodman/Crypto.com

In a move almost as genius as Saul Goodman hawking prepaid flip phones to drug dealers with the pitch that they were “untraceable” (unlike Verizon’s alleged snitch-friendly contracts) Crypto.com just teamed up with Underdog to roll out sports prediction markets.

Now you might be thinking, “So what? Robinhood’s already doing this.” Which is a fair point. Robinhood, Kalshi, Polymarket… they’ve all dipped their toes in prediction markets. But unlike them, Crypto.com and Underdog are focusing on 16 states where sports betting is still illegal. We’re talking California, Texas, and Florida. The big three. The states where FanDuel and DraftKings can’t get in the door without starting a cage match with state regulators. Crypto.com, on the other hand, just showed up with a smirk and said, “Relax, it’s not gambling… it’s trading. Totally different.”

That’s the sneaky trick. Instead of pitching this as gambling, they’re running the action through Crypto.com Derivatives North America, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “Don’t call it betting. Call it federally regulated derivatives trading.” The contracts look and feel like bets (you’re buying “yes” or “no” outcomes on games) but legally, they slide under commodities law. It’s a genius chess move if I’ve ever seen one myself.

The mechanics are pretty simple. Take the season opener between the Eagles and Cowboys. Let’s say the market gives Philly a 60% chance of winning. That contract trades at $0.60. If the Eagles fly, it pays out $1. If they get stomped by Dallas, it’s worthless. With this style of gambling, you don’t have to deal with shady bookies ghosting you on payouts or DraftKings pulling their usual tricks… moving the line mid-click, capping your bets the second you get hot, or dangling those “bet $5, get $200” promos that pay out in bonus credits worth less than Chuck E. Cheese tokens.

Underdog’s CEO Jeremy Levine is convinced that prediction markets are the future of sports gambling. In his words, they’re “one of the most exciting developments we’ve seen in a long time.” The logic is this: people already wager on sports, but this model dresses it up like a financial product and, crucially, gives it a federal permission slip. That matters. There’s also real money at stake. Citizens analyst Jordan Bender pegs the sports prediction market at roughly $555 million in 2025. That sounds chunky until you stack it against the $16 billion the legal online sports betting industry sucked in last year like an infomercial vacuum. So it’s still a minnow, but minnows get eaten last… and this one is swimming in waters sportsbooks can’t legally touch.

(Source: CNBC)

That’s why this is such a power move. By focusing on the no-go states, Crypto.com and Underdog are basically selling flip phones in a Verizon world. They’re taking something that looks sketchy, rebranding it, and suddenly it’s not only legal but federally sanctioned. Whether the courts eventually call BS remains to be seen… regulators are still arguing over whether prediction markets are gambling or commodities. But in the meantime, Crypto.com has found the loophole, Underdog has the sports audience, and fans in California, Texas, and Florida just got a new way to lose money without calling their bookie. Saul Goodman would call that justice.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Verizon and Robinhood as mentioned in the article.