Well if Robinhood’s 3,000% YoY earnings increase didn’t tell us anything about 2025’s massive crypto frenzy, Coinbases’ absolute CLINIC of an earnings showing sure does. In short, Coinbase just dropped a Q4 earnings obliteration, and Wall Street is eating it up off the floor. Revenue surged 130% to $2.27 billion, crushing the $1.88 billion that analysts expected. Meanwhile, earnings per share came in at a ridiculous $4.68, nearly triple the predicted $1.81.
Again, this quarter was all about the crypto rally. Coinbase’s trading volume exploded 185% year-over-year to $439 billion, with retail traders (aka the Robinhood crowd who still think Pepe and Fartcoin is a retirement plan) pumping out a 224% increase in trading volume. Why? Two words: Bitcoin ETF.
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2024 and the election of a pro-crypto President and Congress in Q4 sent the market into full-blown euphoria mode. Coinbase didn’t just benefit—it printed money off the chaos. Of course, despite all the talk about diversification, Coinbase is still a glorified trading platform. Trading revenue made up 68.5% of total revenue, and most of that came from retail traders FOMO-ing into the market. CEO Brian Armstrong can talk all he wants about subscriptions and services, but let’s be real—when trading volume spikes, Coinbase wins. And when it doesn’t? Well, that’s when the company gets real excited about things like staking, stablecoins, and custody services.
(Source: CNBC)
What’s more is that Coinbase is supposedly going all-in on the USDC stablecoin. Armstrong even called it a “stretch goal” to make USDC the #1 stablecoin. Translation: they need a hedge for when meme coin trading inevitably cools off. Spoiler: It won’t.
The bottom line of this quarter though? Coinbase still lives and dies by crypto volatility. And honestly, that’s not a bad thing. Crypto traders are back, Bitcoin is making new highs, and the regulatory landscape is looking a little less terrifying under a pro-crypto administration. If Coinbase can keep riding this gravy train while slowly building out its other revenue streams, this stock could end up absolutely ripping.
Live look at Cathie Woods right now…
(Source: Giphy)
But again, that’s only if the crypto euphoria continues. As I’m sure you know, crypto winters are brutal. Every bull run brings in a wave of new traders, but when the hype dies down, liquidity dries up, and Coinbase’s revenue gets slashed. Meaning, the second it cools off again (and I mean exaggerated cool off), Coinbase is back to being a very expensive, very volatile bet on the next bull run, whenever that may be.
So yeah, Coinbase put on a clinic, and the initial stock saw a pump in price. However, due to the fact the rising tide that helped Coinbase double its revenue is now lifting up other boats, too (read: competitors) the stock is getting bodied today, down -6.79%. Which means, place your bets accordingly and watch out for a resurgence towards the close of Friday trading. In the meantime, stay safe and stay frosty, friends! Until next time…
P.S. Want deep dives on the hottest AI plays before the rest of the market catches on? Want to know who’s riding the hype train and who’s actually building something that won’t collapse the second the AI bubble deflates? Want the inside track on the moves that matter before they hit the front page? Then quit playing around and subscribe to Stocks.News Premium ASAP…
Stocks.News holds positions in Robinhood as mentioned in the article.
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