“Board Member Goes Wild” On TopGolf Callaway Shares, Triggering Massive 15% Moonshot…

There are two ways to get Wall Street’s attention these days: drop an AI press release, or have a board member splurge more than $2 million of their own cash into the company stock. For TopGolf Callaway, that’s exactly what happened yesterday as shares staged a 15% moonshot, giving investors something else to talk about other than their glorified, lying out of their teeth “handicaps”. 

(Source: Giphy) 

In short, Adebay Ogunlesi took a dip into his “F’ you money” fund to drop $2.5 million to scoop up 383,701 shares of MODG on the open market. Filing hit Friday, stock went vertical Monday. The end. Now for those who aren’t up to date on Ogunlesi, and why investors were bricked up on the move… Well, the man’s resume reads like a LinkedIn fever hallucination: architect of that $12B BlackRock infrastructure deal, current BlackRock director, OpenAI board member… a.k.a. He’s basically the human embodiment of “your move, peasants.” So apparently, whatever he does… it’s the midas touch. 

Not to mention the Street loves nothing more than “big brain” insiders putting real skin in the game, especially when the rest of the C-suite is too busy vesting options at underwater strike prices. This was Ogunlesi’s first MODG buy since June 2023… meaning he’s either averaging down with the enthusiasm of a r/wallstreetbets degenerate, or he knows something the rest of us don’t (and by “knows,” I mean: has been to an earnings call sober). 

(Source: CNBC) 

For more context, Topgolf Callaway stock is still down 6% YTD and off more than 50% since last summer. The Topgolf acquisition, which looked like a Michael Burry vision in October 2020, has spent three years torpedoing shareholder value left, right, and twice on Sunday. Additionally, the company is rocking a market cap of $1.36 billion… which let me remind you, is less than what Saudi teenagers drop on LIV Golf weekends. 

As for the debt, it’s $687 million and counting. Five-year operating margin? Picture the Mariana Trench, but with more bean counters and less sunlight. Earnings growth = -22.6%. Oh, and the chart looks like someone dropped a bowling ball off the Topgolf roof and filmed it for TikTok. Translation: There’s a reason no one was expecting MODG shares to sniff anything close to their GF Value estimate of $16.10 anytime this decade.

(Source: Florida Golf) 

But, but, but… IF you want to mainline some hopium: revenue is technically up 2.7% over the past year, and the price-to-sales ratio is scraping its 10-year lows. The Beneish M-Score says management probably isn’t faking the numbers, which is about as much reassurance as you can expect from a company whose entire business model is “what if Dave & Buster’s went golfing?” And let’s not forget: insider buying over the past three months totals 443,701 shares. Fun fact: That’s showing more conviction than most portfolio managers have about their actual marriages LOL. 

On the other end, the breakup whispers continue to flow in the wind. Wall Street’s been buzzing that Topgolf and Callaway could split, and with Ogunlesi’s BlackRock connections you can practically see the private equity sharks circling. A director buy of this size, at this price, is either a bat signal or a last meal. So yeah, we are all super “sus” now…

(Source: Giphy) 

But alas, if Ogunlesi, in fact knows something that most of us plebs don’t… it’s presumably massive. So with that, it might not be a bad idea to keep your eyes and ears close to TopGolf Callaway as much as possible. Because when an insider of this magnitude moves… it’s for a reason… and this is no doubt the kind of inflection point that makes legends (or at least pays for a couple more driving range beers). Now of course, do what you will with this information, and don’t take what I say to heart. Do your own due diligence and place your bets accordingly, friends. Until next time…

At the time of publishing, Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.