BIG NEWS: JOLTS Report Delivers a Giant “LOL” to Recession Alarmists…

By Stocks News   |   4 weeks ago   |   Stock Market News
BIG NEWS: JOLTS Report Delivers a Giant “LOL” to Recession Alarmists…

Apparently, the U.S. labor market is about as fragile as a Nokia flip phone.April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dumped a big, steaming serving of “not so fast” on every economist who’s been shorting American optimism since January. Job openings came in at 7.4 million… which is 191,000 more than March, and a full quarter-million above what the “consensus” crowd guessed. Bigly. 

JOLTS Report

(Source: Giphy) 

In short, The jobs-to-unemployed ratio sits at 1.03:1, barely budging from March, which basically means almost everyone looking for work could theoretically land something, assuming they don’t quit after five minutes or demand a $200k remote gig where their main skill is “owns a ring light.” In 2019, that number had economists drooling… now it’s just business as usual. Hiring ticked up to 5.6 million (up 169k), layoffs rose to 1.79 million (up 196k), and quits dipped to 3.2 million (down by 150k)... as in, fewer people are peacing out before finding their next gig. Workers are a little less convinced they can waltz into a better job, but the hiring engine is still fully bricked up. 

JOLTS Report

(Source: CNBC) 

So what does this all mean for the “how screwed are we?” On the one hand, job openings are holding steady in that 7-8 million dead zone they’ve been stuck in for a year. On the other, the manufacturing sector just faceplanted… new orders fell 3.7% (the geniuses at Dow Jones thought it’d only drop 3.3%), and shipments and inventories are down too. The only thing growing in factories right now is existential dread and the world’s largest pyramid of unused products. 

Meanwhile, the Fed is sitting back, mainlining data and pretending it’s got a plan. J-Powell and his merry band of rate-setters are still stuck between “don’t break the labor market” and “don’t let inflation do the Dougie on the dollar.” In fact, according to Atlanta Fed boss Bostic, he hasn’t “gotten sort of a strong overarching picture or impression that things are moving in a significant way”... which is just a high-level way of saying, “It’s fine, I guess?” Regardless though, the market’s betting they’ll keep twiddling their thumbs until September. 

JOLTS Report

(Source: Giphy) 

The big picture here though is that the labor market is still floating above water, with plenty of openings and a hiring pace that refuses to die, even as factories slow-walk themselves into a corner. The only real loser here is anyone who thought 2025 was the year of mass layoffs and office ghost towns. The economy heard those recession predictions and said “Hold my beer.”

Of course, we are always one headline, or one Truth Social post away from mass chaos, so while the labor market seems to be doing A-OK now… anything can happen. Meaning, keep your head on the swivel and place your bets accordingly. Until next time, friends… 

JOLTS Report

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Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article. 

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