Apple’s First Big Win of the Year Came From the Last Place You’d Expect (Don’t Get Too Excited Yet)

You’ve seen the meme on Twitter. The one where there’s a bunch of elite soldiers, face paint on, guns loaded, mission ready (like they’re about to take out Osama Bin Laden)… and in the middle, there’s Ronald McDonald standing tall like he belongs. That’s been Apple in the “Magnificent 7” this year.

While Nvidia’s moved way past the DeepSeek scare, Meta’s algorithmically reading your mind, and Amazon is somehow figuring out ways to deliver packages faster… Apple’s been out here showing off liquid glass like it’s the second coming of sliced bread. Their big “AI” reveal was basically just Siri wearing a new hat… powered by OpenAI (aka the same engine running half of Silicon Valley’s side hustles). And this might just be my opinion, but if Siri was any less helpful, she’d be working the DMV. I said what I said.

Needless to say, investors have voiced their frustrations by yeeting the stock down 12% YTD. Which is somehow only second-worst in the squad… only Tesla’s “Robotaxi or Bust” campaign is getting clowned harder (down 16%). But today, Apple finally brought a win to the battlefield. And it came from the one place you’d least expect (cue Trump voice) “CH-INA.”

According to reports, iPhone sales in China rose 8% year-over-year in Q2… marking the first time in two years Apple’s grown in its second-biggest market. That’s no small feat, considering they’ve been getting absolutely bodied by Huawei, who posted a 12% sales jump and now leads the Chinese smartphone market. Huawei, fresh off a phoenix-style comeback after U.S. sanctions nearly kneecapped their smartphone business, posted 12% growth in Q2 and now leads the Chinese market. Apple currently sits in third, behind Huawei and Vivo. So yes, this growth is progress… but the war’s far from over.

So how’d Apple pull off this rare dub? Discounts, baby. The place where sales go to rise and profits go to die. During May’s 618 shopping festival (China’s version of Black Friday), Apple started lowering iPhone prices and making trade in deals so enticing it was almost impossible to say no. Some e-commerce sites were offering over $350 off the iPhone 16. Naturally, sales spiked. Turns out Chinese consumers do still want iPhones… just not at “Tim Cook wants another mansion” prices.

Even analyst Edison Lee at Jefferies (who takes a shot at Apple stock anytime he gets a chance) begrudgingly upgraded it back to “Hold” this week. He thinks the June quarter could come in stronger than expected, especially with U.S. consumers reportedly pulling forward iPhone demand to get ahead of possible tariff hikes.

That said, Lee’s still waving a yellow flag (if that’s a thing). Lee still thinks the back half of 2025 could be a snoozefest thanks to a lack of iPhone 17 innovation (thin phone, less battery, more money… revolutionary). Plus, the AI playbook is still TBD and if Uncle Sam (read: Trump) decides to play hardball with China, India, or Vietnam (all critical links in Apple’s supply chain) it could knock earnings down by as much as 7%, even under “mild” scenarios.

So yeah, Apple may still look like the clown in the camo lineup. But today, Ronald McDonald landed a headshot. We’ll see if it’s enough to keep him in the squad. All jokes aside, there’s a better chance of me winning The Masters next year than Apple not bouncing back.

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in Apple, Meta, Amazon, McDonald’s and Tesla as mentioned in the article.