Altman And Nadella Are Playing a $10B Game of Chicken (If Nobody Flinches, Wreckage Hits Dec. 31)

“Microsoft and OpenAI are playing chicken with $10B on the line… and neither wants to swerve first.”

If you’ve ever sat in a turning lane trying to pull into Papa John’s while some dude in a lifted F-250 is barreling toward you trying to hit the McDonald’s across the street, you can truthfully say that you and Sam Altman have at least one thing in common right now. It goes without saying (but I’m gonna say it anyways), Microsoft and OpenAI are in a weird f**king spot right now. Publicly, they look locked in… Microsoft’s already dropped $13 billion into the pot, owns about a third of the company, and has the keys to ChatGPT’s brain on Azure until 2030. On paper, that’s commitment. Like “joint checking account” levels of commitment.

But here’s where the water gets dirty. OpenAI’s trying to flip its corporate structure so investors can hold actual equity instead of those weird profit-sharing IOUs. That’s the only way they can tee up an IPO and keep SoftBank’s $10 billion check from disappearing into thin air. The catch of course is that none of that happens without Microsoft rewriting the rules of the relationship.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why either. OpenAI wants to see other people. They’re trying to hook up with Amazon and Google for cloud hosting, since API sales already make up 25% of their $12 billion ARR and opening the doors could print more money. Microsoft’s response is essentially: “lol no, we literally own you.” It seems like right now, the “compromise” on the table is letting OpenAI use AWS or Google only for government customers who can’t touch Azure. Which is like your girlfriend saying, “Fine, you can cheat… but only in Ohio.”

And that brings us to the AGI clause, aka the red button under glass. Right now the contract says if OpenAI ever builds artificial general intelligence…  software that outperforms humans at most jobs (so, Skynet with better vibes) they can cut Microsoft off from their IP. Naturally, Nadella wants that clause deleted stat. OpenAI’s hanging onto it like it’s their last bargaining chip. Nobody’s dumb enough to actually push it (doing so would blow the whole thing sky-high) but just having it on the table makes this standoff nasty.

(Source: The Decoder)

In my view, here’s the most important thing in this whole ordeal. If they don’t figure this out by December 31, SoftBank can legally withhold its $10B. Which is obviously a huge deal considering that’s the cash OpenAI needs to keep its $300 billion valuation fantasy alive. Meanwhile, Sam’s out here whispering about a secondary sale at a $500B valuation, so the clock is ticking hard. Miss the deadline and investor group chats are gonna get real stressful.

So yeah… Microsoft wants control. OpenAI wants freedom. Both know they can’t live without each other. It’s the kind of toxic situationship where you break up on Friday, crawl back on Monday, and tell your friends you’re “working through it.”

Most likely, they’ll cut a deal… there’s way too much money at stake for this thing to blow up completely. But don’t be shocked if it drags into 2026. Until then, it’s just Satya Nadella and Sam Altman locked in a staring contest like, “You move first, bitch.”

At the time of publishing this article, Stocks.News holds positions in McDonald’s, Microsoft, and Google as mentioned in the article.