In a world where math isn’t supposed to lie, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) has managed to pull a Houdini on Wall Street. Despite bleeding $58 million last year (and another $16 million this past quarter), TMTG's value has tripled in just five weeks. 

You heard that right: a company that made only $837,000 in it's most recent quarterly earnings report is now worth nearly $8 billion. And no, it’s not because Truth Social has taken the social media throne from Twitter. Of course, it’s all about one thing: the 2024 election.

(Source: Education Week)

According to the pros, Truth Social’s stock is a “binary outcome.” Trader Oasis has a pool of investors placing bets (within the options market) that the stock will either blast past $70 or dive under $20 depending on who takes the Oval Office. Truth Social’s fate hinges so tightly on Trump’s re-election odds that it’s trading like a political weather vane. Eric Hale, the guy behind Trader Oasis, put it bluntly: “DJT stock is a proxy for Trump winning.” 

Unlike any typical stock, DJT isn’t trading on profits or, well, logic. It’s trading on the fervor around Trump’s return to the White House. This thing’s not just volatile; it’s off the charts. George Kailas from Prospero.ai even called TMTG’s current valuation “crazy”—it’s over 1,600 times its actual enterprise value, making it one of the most overvalued media companies out there. To put it mildly, this is like paying for a Rolls Royce only to find out it's got the engine of a used golf cart. And why? Because people are banking on a Trump victory to pull a miracle and turn Truth Social into, well, something.

Here’s the play if Trump pulls off a win. Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers says the stock’s surge would make Truth Social the de facto app for presidential shoutouts. Sure, that’d be a first—seeing the President tweeting his take on foreign policy or budgets via Truth Social. But while the hype would be huge, actual revenue? That’s still a question mark. It’s not like advertisers are lining up to pay top dollar for space on a platform barely holding its own in user growth.

But, assuming it does turn into Trump’s megaphone, DJT could manage to extract some profit. Then again, if you believe that a Trump administration alone can make Truth Social “profitable,” I've got a bridge to sell you. It’s a long shot, but then again, so is the whole business.

Let’s take a reality check. If Trump loses? That $8 billion is heading south faster than snowbirds in January. Analyst Matthew Tuttle, who’s betting against DJT, thinks: “If Trump loses, I think it eventually goes to zero.” In his view, the stock will fall off a cliff, with Trump possibly needing to offload shares (and work at McDonald’s) to cover mounting legal costs. 

And here’s where it gets fun—well, maybe not fun if you’re holding shares. Trump owns about 114.75 million shares in DJT, which means if he’s forced to sell, it’ll be like “like nothing you’ve ever seen”, but for his own fortune. Experts predict that stockholders banking on a Trump win will cash out immediately if he wins, probably driving the price down before Truth Social can even think of capitalizing on the hype.

For now, based on what the options market is predicting, DJT is the ultimate go big or go home. This isn’t a stock; it’s a slot machine with one lever labeled “Trump.” It’s either the jackpot or a one-way ticket to rock bottom. 

P.S. A new trade is about to drop any moment, and it could be the kind that takes off faster than a Halloween sale on November 1st. But don’t take my word for it—our last alert, timed down to the minute (Tuesday, 8:41 am EST, to be exact), soared 72.83% in under five minutes. So, if you’re done hearing about “what could have been,” it’s time to jump on the front lines.

Click here to join Stocks.News Premium and catch the next big move while it's still fresh.

Stock.News has positions in McDonald’s.