Shopify just dropped its Q4 earnings, and as usual, Wall Street is pretending to be surprised by the same tired pattern: revenue beat, earnings miss, guidance that makes everyone question their life choices. The stock on the other hand? Well, it mooned 3.11%. 

(Source: Giphy) 

For starters, Shopify pulled in $2.81 billion in revenue, which was better than the $2.73 billion analysts expected—great, they can still grow. But earnings came in at 39 cents per share when the market was expecting 43 cents. That’s an easy way to piss off Wall Street, which apparently still has the audacity to expect efficiency from a company that operates like it’s allergic to profit.

Gross merchandise volume hit $94.5 billion, which beat expectations of $93 billion, meaning merchants are still moving more product through Shopify than analysts thought they would. But, here’s the problem: operating expenses are expected to eat up 41-42% of revenue in Q1, which is a significant jump from 31.5% in Q4. Translation: Shopify is doing what it always does—spending like a degenerate gambler trying to win back last quarter’s losses.

(Source: CNBC) 

And then, there’s the guidance, baby. This one was as “mixed” as the financial media is politely putting it. Shopify expects revenue to grow in the mid-20% range, which is pretty much in line with what analysts were already assuming (24.4%). The real issue? Q4 revenue jumped 31%, so this is technically a slowdown. Wall Street, being the fragile and reactionary entity that it is, immediately started spiraling about deceleration. Wedbush analysts tried to rationalize it by blaming things like foreign exchange headwinds, leap year math, and Shopify’s tendency to sandbag expectations. Meanwhile, investors are left wondering if Shopify’s growth story still has legs or if it’s about to enter its awkward, "we peaked in highschool and now we don’t know what we’re doing" phase.

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Plus, because no earnings call can be complete without some macroeconomic clusterf**k, Shopify had to weigh in on Trump’s latest trade war antics. The former president decided to finally put an end to the de minimis loophole, a century-old rule that let Chinese online retailers flood the U.S. with tax-free garbage (refer to my Nobel Prize caliber article on the matter here). Even Shopify President Harley Finkelstein, called de minimis a "crucial tool for small businesses" and suggested that instead of killing it outright, governments should "streamline customs processes and improve digital duty collection." In other words, Shopify would really prefer if the U.S. government didn’t kneecap the cheap import pipeline that’s been quietly helping its merchants undercut domestic competition. But sure, let’s pretend this is about fair trade and not Shopify freaking out about losing a competitive advantage.

(Source: Yahoo Finance) 

Of course, despite all the noise, Shopify is still very much in growth mode, desperately clawing its way into the big leagues by courting enterprise customers like Mattel and Reebok. The company is trying to prove it can be more than just a platform for small-time entrepreneurs selling Etsy-tier garbage, and to be fair, it’s making progress. Gross merchandise volume grew 24% year-over-year, marking its highest GMV growth in three years. The problem is that Wall Street doesn’t just want growth—it wants growth and profitability, and Shopify is still struggling to deliver both at the same time. 

So here we are, another Shopify earnings report, another round of investors convincing themselves that this time will be different. Yes, revenue beat, but earnings missed, and guidance made people nervous. However, the stock is still going up, because, well… gamblers gonna gamble. Of course, Shopify is still playing the long game, still spending like it has unlimited runway, and still telling the market to trust the process. Whether that process eventually leads to actual, sustainable profitability or just more of the same hype machine remains to be seen. But for now, the cult remains strong.

(Source: Giphy) 

In the meantime, keep an eye on Shopify throughout the day as the stock is down -3.43% on the day, and place your friggin’ bets accordingly. As always, stay safe and stay frosty, friends! Until next time… 

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Stocks.News does not hold positions in companies mentioned in the article.