If Super Micro is your biggest holding, you’ve probably gone from refreshing Zillow listings for foreclosure auctions to browsing oceanfront estates in Miami… all in the span of a few months. The stock has been sloshing back and forth like a cruise ship in a storm, the kind that makes even veteran traders reach for a Dramamine pill just to avoid getting seasick.

Just last year, Super Micro was on the verge of getting kicked out of the Nasdaq club for being a little too creative with its accounting (allegedly). The DOJ was sniffing around, short-seller Hindenburg Research was throwing haymakers, and Ernst & Young straight-up quit as their auditor because they weren’t willing to vouch for the numbers. At its lowest point in November 2024, Super Micro cratered to under $18 per share, an 85% drop from its March 2024 high of $122.

But here we are, in 2025, and Super Micro is back with a vengeance. Shares have surged 59% in the past five trading days, including an 18% jump on Monday. Year-to-date, it’s up 39%, absolutely torching the Nasdaq’s 2.1% gain.

AI spending is getting out of control… in a good way. Tech household names like Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have their wallets wide open, with plans to spend $320 billion on AI infrastructure and data centers this year. That’s where Super Micro comes in, selling high-performance AI servers that are loaded with Nvidia’s magic GPUs. The demand is so insane that Super Micro’s revenue has more than doubled for three straight quarters.

Of course, not everyone is buying the hype. The stock is still 64% off its March 2024 high, and skeptics are raising eyebrows over the company’s still-missing audited financials. Remember, Super Micro was given until February 25 to file its Form 10-K or face delisting from Nasdaq.

Then there’s the analyst exodus… the number of firms covering Super Micro has been slashed in half since September 2024. Right now, only 10 analysts are willing to touch the stock, and seven of them have either a hold or outright sell rating. The average price target suggests an 18% downside, which, in layman’s terms, means analysts don’t trust this rally as far as they can throw it.

There’s no denying that Super Micro is taking full advantage of the AI boom. Their partnership with Nvidia, aggressive R&D, and AI demand tailwinds make them a legit growth story. But if they don’t clear up their financial mess and keep their Nasdaq listing intact, this stock could face another huge drop.

But here’s something else to consider… Super Micro might not need Wall Street’s approval to thrive. If it can secure direct investment from AI-hungry tech companies (in terms of Microsoft or Amazon cutting a fat check for exclusive supply deals), it could sidestep the usual Wall Street skepticism. In that case, analysts can keep their price targets… because if Super Micro locks in long-term AI infrastructure deals, it could be an AI powerhouse for years to come.

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Stock.News has positions in Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.