And just like that, Cleveland-Cliffs is back from the dead—ripping more than 18% higher yesterday after Donnie Politics promised to slap a 25% tax on imported steel and aluminum. That’s right, the same stock that face planted last week after its Q4 preview disappointed investors is now one of the most talked-about tickers on the internet, because nothing gets the market horned up quite like a good old-fashioned protectionist trade policy.

(Source: Giphy) 

Now of course, investors (and economists) typically hate tariffs because, you know, they tend to wreck global supply chains and spark economic pissing matches. But if you’re Cleveland-Cliffs, a fully integrated U.S. steel producer mining its own iron ore and making its own steel, this is Christmas in February.

The logic for the surge is simple: Foreign steel just got 25% more expensive, and now, U.S steel producers like Cleveland-Cliffs can jack up their prices. Meaning, shareholders are suddenly feeling things they haven’t felt in years (in a good way). What's more is that it’s not just Cliffs cashing in—shares of U.S. Steel and Nucor also popped about 5% on the news. Because if Trump is serious about this, domestic steelmakers just got a massive competitive advantage, while foreign producers are left scrambling to figure out how to stay relevant in a suddenly very expensive U.S. market.

(Source: Stocktwits) 

On the other hand though, if there’s one guy who’s not-so-secretly loving this, it’s Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves. The man is basically the Elon Musk of the steel industry, except instead of Twitter meltdowns, he drops absolute haymakers on foreign competition and rival bidders.

Just last month, Goncalves set Japanese firm Nippon Steel on fire for trying to acquire U.S. Steel, calling their bid a joke and doubling down on his own aggressive pursuit of the company. Now, with tariffs in play, Cliffs suddenly has more leverage to make a move on U.S. Steel, maybe even teaming up with Nucor to pull off a domestic takeover. Plus, considering he’s been been screaming about tariffs for years, calling them a necessary step to bring back American manufacturing dominance—Mr. Goncalves officially has the political backing to make sh*t happen.

Live look at Mr. Goncalves right now…

(Source: Giphy) 

But, but, but… still, these tariffs aren’t even official yet. Trump announced them while talking to reporters on Air Force One, which, let’s be honest, isn’t exactly the Federal Register. He says they’ll be formalized this week, but until that ink is dry, this is just another promise with no legs (yet).

Secondly, trade changes faster than Bitcoin’s price action. Tariffs sound great—until retaliatory levies start flying in from other countries, sparking a full-blown trade war that wrecks demand. Heck, remember 2018? Steel stocks soared on Trump’s initial tariffs, only to crash once the broader economic fallout set in.

(Source: CNN) 

And finally, Cleveland-Cliffs is still down over 39% in the last 12 months (all while being up 24.11% YTD). Meaning a massive one-day pop like this doesn’t erase the facts that fundamentals still matter—and Cliffs still has to prove it can turn tariffs into long-term profitability.

So given this, if Trump follows through, it’s obvious Cleveland-Cliffs just got handed a golden ticket. But if this threat fizzles out, yesterday’s rally could end up being another head fake. Either way though, expect some wild swings ahead and place your bets accordingly. As always, stay safe and stay frosty, friends! Until next time… 

P.S. Want deep dives on the hottest AI plays before the rest of the market catches on? Want to know who’s riding the hype train and who’s actually building something that won’t collapse the second the AI bubble deflates? Want the inside track on the moves that matter before they hit the front page? Then quit playing around and subscribe to Stocks.News Premium ASAP… 

Stocks.News holds positions in Cleveland-Cliffs as mentioned in the article.