Trump Just Turned The EV Market Into a Desert… Lucid and Rivian Are Stranded Without a Map or Water

Have you ever played Monopoly with that one friend who starts losing and suddenly tries to rewrite the rules mid-game? Like, “Actually, I can bomb your hotels now because I landed on Free Parking with a Get Out of Jail Free card.” That’s kind of what’s happening in the EV market right now. And Lucid and Rivian are looking like the poor kids holding Baltic Avenue after Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” flipped the whole board.
So here’s what happened: Ten days ago, Lucid was feeling pretty good about themselves. The stock had bounced 45% off February’s depression lows after their CEO peaced out and investors dared to dream. And then… wham. Down 23% in just over a week. Down more than 6% last Friday alone. Total decline for 2024 is -25%. Basically, Lucid’s been trading like it’s auditioning for a role in The Last of Us: EV Edition.
Rivian wasn’t spared either… down 3% Friday, and not just because investors are tired of hearing “we promise the R2 will be awesome in 2026.” This selloff wasn’t about bad earnings or Elon roasting them on Twitter (again). Nope. It was simply politics. Specifically, Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”… because I guess it wasn’t enough to wreck the golf cart industry. Now we’re aiming at Teslas, Rivians, Lucids, and anything else that runs on lithium (and has a 100 mile driving range in the winter).
The bill passed the House on May 22nd and it’s not a good sight to see if you’re an EV executive. That wonderful $7,500 EV tax credit courtesy of Uncle Joe (President Biden)? Gone after a company sells 200,000 cars. That’s peanuts for Tesla. On top of that, there’s an annual $250 fee just for owning an electric car. Charging station funding is almost gone. Battery subsidies are cut. And to make matters worse, tariffs on foreign EVs and parts are jumping to 25%. If you thought your EV was pricey before, wait until it's competing with a used Gulfstream.
Now, I’ll admit: I like Rivian. My neighbor has one, and it looks like something Batman would drive to Whole Foods. But let's not ignore the fact they burned through $541 million last quarter. Even Lucid had a tidy $366 million loss. These companies are still startups with billion-dollar burn rates, and now their financial runway just got shortened by The Donald.
Also, if you look at the volume… Lucid traded over 237 million shares on Thursday. Which is more than double its 100-day average. Pair that with a short float of 45%, and you’ve got a stock that’s looking like a game of hot potato (again).
Even Tesla’s feeling the heat. JPMorgan estimates more than half of Tesla’s profits could be at risk if this legislation reaches its full volume. Sure, Tesla might get a sugar rush from folks panic-buying before the subsidies vanish, but come 2026 that demand cliff is looking real steep. And the further we push toward a post-subsidy America, the tougher the road looks for any EV maker not named “Cybertruck.”
In my opinion, this is the start of the next desert era for EVs. The last few years were full of hype, subsidies, ESG funds throwing cash around like money grows on trees. But now, I think we’re entering the “show me the profits” phase. And frankly, Lucid and Rivian don’t have much to show yet.
Stocks.News has positions in Tesla.